Senegal: PRES 2026 Revenue Revision Slashes Projections by 59%

• Senegal's projected revenues from the Plan de redressement économique et social (PRES) for 2026 have been significantly cut by 451.4 billion FCFA.
• This revision slashes the expected 2026 PRES revenues from 762.9 billion FCFA to 311.5 billion FCFA, representing a 59% decrease.
• A major factor in this shortfall is the downward adjustment of anticipated gambling taxation, now projected at 120 billion FCFA for 2026, down from an initial 300 billion FCFA.
• The overall fiscal revenue projection for 2026 has also been reduced to 4,931.5 billion FCFA, impacting public investments which will see a 555 billion FCFA cut.
• In response, the government plans to intensify efforts to recover outstanding debts, address under-declared corporate taxes, and regularize unremitted VAT.

The government intends to intensify efforts to recover outstanding financial obligations, address under-declarations of turnover and corporate taxes, and regularize collected but unremitted Value Added Tax.

Senegal is facing a substantial downward revision in its projected revenues for the Plan de redressement économique et social (PRES) in 2026. The anticipated income from the PRES has been slashed from an initial forecast of 762.9 billion FCFA to a revised figure of 311.5 billion FCFA. This adjustment represents a significant reduction of 451.4 billion FCFA, marking an approximate 59% decrease from the original projections.

This considerable Senegal PRES 2026 revenue revision follows a period of underperformance in the first half of the year. During this initial six-month period, the PRES managed to mobilize only 140.7 billion FCFA, falling short of its target of 221.1 billion FCFA. This resulted in a realization rate of just 63.6%, leaving an 80.4 billion FCFA deficit for the first semester.

A primary contributor to this substantial shortfall, particularly for the 2026 projections, is the re-evaluation of expected income from the taxation of gambling. The anticipated yield from gambling taxation in 2026 has been significantly reduced to 120 billion FCFA, a sharp decline from the 300 billion FCFA initially stipulated in the finance law. This specific adjustment alone accounts for a difference of 180 billion FCFA in the 2026 forecast.

Beyond gambling, the first-semester underperformance also saw a 61.5 billion FCFA deficit from gambling taxation compared to its initial forecasts. Additionally, the draft revised finance law (Sénégal loi de finances rectificative 2026) indicates that several other measures, including massive land regularization, a tax on gold exports, the reintroduction of exit duties on peanut exports, and the renewal of concession agreements for telephone operators, are not expected to generate any revenue. The underlying reasons for the absence of revenue from these specific initiatives were not detailed in the document.

The substantial reduction in PRES revenues has a cascading effect on Senegal's broader fiscal outlook. The overall projection for recettes fiscales Sénégal 2026 has been adjusted downwards to 4,931.5 billion FCFA, a decrease from the initial framework of 5,384.8 billion FCFA. This recalibration reflects the significant impact of the PRES's revised expectations on the nation's financial planning.

Furthermore, the revised revenue forecasts necessitate a considerable reduction in planned public investments for 2026, with a cut of 555 billion FCFA. Investment credits funded through internal resources are set to decrease from 1,448.9 billion FCFA to 1,133.2 billion FCFA. Similarly, external financing for investments will be scaled back from 1,355 billion FCFA to 1,115.7 billion FCFA, indicating a comprehensive adjustment across various funding streams.

In light of these revised financial projections and the need to bolster state coffers, the government has signaled a clear intent to enhance its revenue collection efforts. Authorities plan to intensify the recovery of outstanding financial obligations that are already due. This proactive stance aims to close existing gaps and ensure compliance across various sectors.

Moreover, the government intends to address under-declarations of turnover and corporate taxes, indicating a heightened scrutiny of business financial reporting. A particular focus will also be placed on the regularization of collected but unremitted Value Added Tax (Recouvrement TVA Sénégal). This strategic shift towards more aggressive enforcement underscores the government's commitment to maximizing fiscal intake amidst the revised economic landscape, as reported by Dakaractu from the draft revised finance law.

This significant downward revision of Senegal's PRES revenues signals an increased likelihood of aggressive tax enforcement by the government. Lawyers and compliance officers should advise clients, particularly those with outstanding tax debts, unremitted VAT, or operating in sectors like gambling, to review their tax compliance and prepare for heightened scrutiny from fiscal authorities.

Source: Original reporting via Dakaractu