DRC: Unreported Uranium Cobalt Exports Total 2,000-5,000 Tonnes

• Recent research estimates 2,000-5,000 tonnes of natural uranium were exported from the DR Congo in cobalt shipments between 2000 and 2024.
• Less than 10% of this uranium has been publicly declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), responsible for nuclear safeguards.
• The uranium, primarily exported to China, could be processed for 600-1,500 nuclear weapons or fuel a light-water reactor for 10-25 years.
• This phenomenon stems from a geological coincidence where cobalt ores in the Copperbelt naturally contain elevated uranium, a region historically significant for uranium mining like the Shinkolobwe mine.
• The DRC launched a probe to test cobalt shipments for uranium content and will consult with the IAEA following the study's publication.

The estimated quantity of uranium could theoretically be processed into enough material to construct approximately 600 to 1,500 nuclear weapons.

Recent geological research indicates that significant, undeclared quantities of natural uranium have been exported from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as a byproduct of its cobalt trade. Between 2000 and 2024, an estimated 2,000 to 5,000 tonnes of natural uranium were likely shipped out of the country within cobalt-hydroxide consignments. This substantial volume, predominantly destined for China, a dominant player in the global cobalt market, represents a critical oversight in international nuclear safeguards.

The methodology behind these estimates involved a systematic analysis of geological data. Researchers utilized geologic maps to model the probable uranium concentrations within cobalt ores across the Copperbelt region. This data was then combined with information on the volume of ore processed at various facilities and a model detailing how uranium behaves during the chemical processing steps before cobalt is prepared for shipment. This approach allowed for the first comprehensive estimation linking cobalt production directly to the likely export of uranium.

The implications of these findings are considerable. The estimated quantity of uranium could theoretically be processed into enough material to construct approximately 600 to 1,500 nuclear weapons. Alternatively, it could serve as fuel for a standard light-water nuclear reactor for a period ranging from 10 to 25 years. Less than 10% of this material appears to have been publicly declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the global body responsible for uranium accountancy and nuclear safeguards.

The presence of uranium in the DRC's cobalt exports is rooted in the unique geological characteristics of the southern Copperbelt region. This area holds historical significance as the primary source of uranium ore for the United States' Manhattan Project between 1942 and 1947, which ultimately led to the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The Shinkolobwe mine in the south-east DRC, officially closed to excavation since 2004, was the Manhattan Project's main supplier.

The current situation is not attributed to covert access or smuggling but rather a geological coincidence. The southern DRC is a critical hub, supplying 70% of the world's cobalt, a mineral essential for modern technologies like smartphones and laptops. The cobalt ores in this region are found in close proximity to concentrated uranium deposits, such as the historic Shinkolobwe mine.

Over millions of years, specifically since the formation of these deposits approximately 600 million years ago, rainwater has gradually dispersed uranium throughout the Copperbelt. The main cobalt-supplying mineral, heterogenite, possesses the ability to adsorb this migrating uranium. Consequently, the very minerals that form the world's largest cobalt supply are naturally characterized by elevated uranium content, a fact noted in previous research highlighting the similar chemical behaviors of uranium and cobalt.

The discovery of substantial, unreported DR Congo uranium in cobalt exports highlights a significant deficiency in global nuclear accountancy and environmental oversight within a vital mineral supply chain. Despite the DRC not officially reporting any uranium exports for decades, the continuous flow of this material as a cobalt byproduct underscores a critical gap in monitoring. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), tasked with uranium accountancy and safeguards, has received public declarations for less than a tenth of the estimated exported uranium.

This situation presents a particular risk given China's dominant position in the global cobalt market, as most of the unreported uranium-containing cobalt has been exported there. The lack of comprehensive Congo mineral supply chain oversight creates potential vulnerabilities for nuclear proliferation and environmental concerns. Compliance officers and legal teams involved in critical mineral supply chains, especially those sourcing cobalt from the DRC, must recognize this emerging challenge.

Following the publication of the study in July 2026, the Democratic Republic of Congo initiated a probe to test outgoing cobalt shipments for uranium content. The DRC government has also committed to consulting with the International Atomic Energy Agency to address these findings. This proactive step signals an acknowledgment of the issue and a move towards greater transparency and control.

However, experts emphasize that further action is necessary to fully close the identified gaps in nuclear accountancy and environmental oversight. The situation points to an anticipated increase in regulatory scrutiny and enhanced due diligence requirements for companies operating within the cobalt supply chain. Such entities may face new obligations related to nuclear safeguards, environmental reporting, and overall supply chain transparency to mitigate both proliferation and environmental risks associated with DRC unreported uranium cobalt exports.

Compliance officers and legal teams involved in critical mineral supply chains, particularly cobalt from the DRC, should anticipate increased regulatory scrutiny and enhanced due diligence requirements regarding uranium content. Companies may face new obligations related to nuclear safeguards, environmental reporting, and supply chain transparency to mitigate proliferation and environmental risks.

Source: Original reporting via The Conversation