DR Congo: New Referendum Law Fuels Tshisekedi Third Term Constitution Fears

• DR Congo President Felix Tshisekedi has enacted a law making it easier to hold a constitutional referendum, which critics believe is a step towards a third term.
• Under the current constitution, Tshisekedi must step down at the end of 2028 after his second five-year term.
• Opposition parties have protested the move, calling it a "constitutional coup," but have struggled to mobilize large numbers following the 2023 elections.
• Former President Joseph Kabila now leads the M23 rebel group, vowing to end tyranny, despite being sentenced to death in absentia for treason and facing US sanctions.
• The political developments occur amidst ongoing conflict in eastern DR Congo, where the M23 has seized significant territory.

President Felix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of Congo has recently enacted legislation that streamlines the process for holding a national referendum on constitutional matters.

President Felix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of Congo has recently enacted legislation that streamlines the process for holding a national referendum on constitutional matters. This move, announced via national television, has been widely interpreted by opposition factions as a strategic maneuver to enable a potential DR Congo Tshisekedi third term constitution, despite the current legal framework.

Under the existing constitution, President Tshisekedi, who assumed office in 2019, is mandated to conclude his second five-year term and step down by the end of 2028. While he publicly stated in early May that he had not initially planned to seek another term, he also indicated a willingness to accept a third term if there was popular demand. The newly enacted DRC referendum law, which eases the rules for such votes, comes two years before the nation's next scheduled elections, fueling concerns about presidential term limits in Congo.

The legislative change has galvanized opposition parties, who have united in recent months to actively resist any attempts to amend the constitution and facilitate a third presidential term. These groups have organized protests in the capital, Kinshasa, and other major cities during June and September, denouncing the situation as a "constitutional coup." These demonstrations have frequently been marred by violent clashes and interventions from security forces, with the United Nations reporting at least one fatality in Kinshasa in June, and opposition sources claiming another supporter was killed in September.

Despite their collective efforts, the opposition, which coalesced into a platform known as C64, has struggled to mobilize significant numbers of people onto the streets. This challenge is partly attributed to their weakened and fragmented state following President Tshisekedi's decisive victory in the 2023 elections. The main opposition parties have also rejected President Tshisekedi's proposal for a national dialogue, further highlighting the deep political divisions surrounding the potential constitutional changes and the future of DR Congo political stability.

The political maneuvering unfolds against a backdrop of severe instability in the eastern regions of the vast Central African nation, which are plagued by ongoing conflict. The M23 armed group, now reportedly led by former President Joseph Kabila, has vowed to "put an end to tyranny" by force if necessary. Kabila, who governed from 2001 to 2019, was sentenced to death in absentia over a year ago on treason charges related to alleged collusion with the M23, and he is also subject to US sanctions for his financial and political backing of the group.

Eastern DR Congo, a region rich in minerals coveted globally, has endured over three decades of conflict. The resurgence of the Rwanda-backed M23 since late 2021 has been particularly disruptive, with the group seizing substantial territory, including the provincial capitals of Goma and Bukavu, in a swift offensive early last year. While the front line has remained relatively stable since then, numerous mediation attempts have yet to bring an end to the fighting. Diplomatic observers fear that any political opposition could be misconstrued as support for Joseph Kabila M23 opposition, prompting opposition parties to distance themselves from the former president, with the C64 platform explicitly condemning any forceful seizure of power, constitutional alteration, third term, or election postponement.

Lawyers advising clients with interests in the DR Congo should closely monitor the progression of this constitutional amendment, as it signals potential political instability and shifts in the legal framework governing presidential terms, which could impact long-term investment strategies, risk assessments, and compliance with local governance structures.

Source: Original reporting via Briefly's legal correspondents