UN & AU: Obasanjo Ethiopia Peace Deal Tensions Spark New Mediation Call

• The UN and AU have requested former President Olusegun Obasanjo to mediate in Ethiopia, as rising tensions threaten the 2022 peace agreement he helped broker.
• Both organizations reaffirmed support for Obasanjo's renewed mediation and urged parties to return to direct talks under the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement.
• Warnings were issued that miscalculations in northern Ethiopia could escalate conflict and destabilize the wider Horn of Africa.
• The 27th Consultative Meeting of the UN-AU Joint Task Force also reviewed conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, and eastern DRC, calling for de-escalation and inclusive dialogue in each.
• The task force highlighted UN-AU cooperation, including the framework for predictable financing of AU-led peace operations under UN Security Council Resolution 2719.

The potential for miscalculations in northern Ethiopia to trigger wider destabilization highlights the critical importance of the ongoing efforts to de-escalate the Ethiopia Tigray conflict.

The United Nations (UN) and the African Union (AU) have jointly called upon former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to intervene in Ethiopia, aiming to prevent a resurgence of conflict. This urgent appeal comes as escalating tensions threaten the integrity of the 2022 peace agreement, which Obasanjo himself played a pivotal role in brokering. Both international bodies have explicitly reaffirmed their unwavering support for Obasanjo's renewed mediation efforts, urging all involved parties to promptly re-engage in direct discussions under the framework of the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement.

This critical stance emerged from the 27th Consultative Meeting of the UN-AU Joint Task Force on Peace and Security, held in New York. During the meeting, a stark warning was issued: any miscalculations in northern Ethiopia could precipitate further escalation, potentially destabilizing the broader Horn of Africa region. Obasanjo, who serves as the AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa, was instrumental in facilitating the Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022, which brought together Ethiopia's Federal Government and Tigrayan forces. With the current rise in tensions, the former Nigerian president is now seen as the key figure to re-engage the parties, revitalize direct dialogue, and safeguard the hard-won accord from unraveling.

In a show of unified commitment, the UN and AU have pledged to enhance coordination behind Obasanjo's mediation. They have collectively implored all sides to address any outstanding disputes through good-faith dialogue, rather than resorting to renewed hostilities. The AU delegation to this significant meeting was led by Ambassador Bankole Adeoye, the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, while the UN side included Under-Secretaries-General Rosemary DiCarlo, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, and Atul Khare, alongside UN Special Representative to the AU Parfait Onanga-Anyanga and Assistant Secretary-General for Africa Martin Kimani.

Beyond the immediate concerns in Ethiopia, the Joint Task Force's comprehensive review extended to other pressing conflicts and political transitions across the continent. In Sudan, the organizations unequivocally stated that no viable military solution exists for the ongoing crisis, calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities. They firmly rejected the establishment of any parallel government and advocated for an inclusive Sudanese dialogue aimed at establishing civilian-led governance, further condemning external interference and military support that fuels the conflict.

Regarding Somalia, the task force reiterated its support for the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission and underscored the necessity of sustained international backing for its operations. Somali stakeholders were also urged to continue their dialogue towards an inclusive agreement on future elections. In the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the UN and AU welcomed various African, regional, and international peace initiatives, calling for an effective and permanent ceasefire and backing plans for an inclusive national dialogue to foster lasting peace.

For South Sudan, the meeting emphasized the importance of achieving national consensus in anticipation of planned December elections. Authorities were specifically urged to address any outstanding gaps in their preparations to ensure a smooth and credible electoral process.

The 27th Consultative Meeting also provided an opportunity to review the broader cooperation between the UN and AU across various critical areas. This included discussions on conflict prevention, mediation strategies, early warning systems, human rights protection, and robust support for African-led peace operations. A significant highlight was the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2719, which establishes a crucial framework for the predictable financing of eligible AU-led peace support operations on a case-by-case basis.

The task force further welcomed new agreements focused on operational support and knowledge exchange, which were formally signed during the 81st session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA81). These agreements signify a deepening partnership and a commitment to more effective collaborative efforts in maintaining peace and security across Africa. Looking ahead, the next statutory meeting of the Joint Task Force is scheduled to be hosted by the African Union Commission, underscoring the rotating leadership and shared responsibility in these vital discussions.

The renewed focus on Obasanjo's Ethiopia mediation underscores the precarious nature of the peace in the Horn of Africa. The potential for miscalculations in northern Ethiopia to trigger wider destabilization highlights the critical importance of the ongoing efforts to de-escalate the Ethiopia Tigray conflict. The steadfast support from the UN and AU for Obasanjo's role as AU Representative signals a concerted international and regional commitment to preventing a return to full-scale hostilities.

Successful re-engagement and revival of direct dialogue under the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement are paramount not only for Ethiopia's internal stability but also for mitigating broader Horn of Africa stability concerns. The outcomes of these mediation efforts will significantly influence geopolitical risk assessments and the operational environment for various stakeholders in the region, making the progress of Obasanjo's renewed mediation a key indicator for regional peace.

Lawyers advising clients with interests in Ethiopia or the broader Horn of Africa should closely track the progress of Obasanjo's renewed mediation, as the outcome will significantly influence regional stability, geopolitical risk assessments, and the operational environment for businesses.

Source: Original reporting via Vanguard