Sudan Famine Risk: IPC Report Warns of Escalating Crisis

• The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has issued a warning about escalating food insecurity across Sudan's Darfur and Kordofan regions.
• Nearly 19.5 million people, over 40% of Sudan's population, faced high levels of acute food insecurity in May, with 135,000 in the most severe Phase 5.
• The crisis is driven by the ongoing conflict, which began in April 2023, and severe drought conditions affecting more than half of the country.
• Acute malnutrition rates are worsening, with significant increases observed in areas like Nyala and displacement camps in South Darfur.
• Humanitarian groups emphasize that ending the conflict and ensuring safe aid access are critical to prevent further intensification of the crisis.

Without a rapid and substantial increase in humanitarian assistance, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification warns that food insecurity, acute malnutrition, and excess mortality are likely to intensify across the nation.

A recent warning from a global food crisis monitor highlights a severe and worsening humanitarian situation across significant parts of Sudan, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has identified these areas, among others, as being at heightened risk of famine, driven by a combination of ongoing conflict and severe drought conditions.

In May, an assessment by the IPC revealed that approximately 19.5 million individuals, representing over 40% of Sudan's total population, were grappling with high levels of acute food insecurity. Among these, 135,000 people were categorized under Phase 5, the most critical classification, signifying extreme food shortages, widespread starvation, severe malnutrition, and mortality resulting from disease or acute nutritional deficiencies. The IPC emphasizes that without a rapid and substantial increase in humanitarian assistance, food insecurity, acute malnutrition, and excess mortality are likely to intensify across the nation.

The conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, originated from escalating tensions between the national military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), initially erupting in the capital city of Khartoum before spreading nationwide. According to the conflict monitor ACLED, the violence has claimed at least 150,000 lives, though humanitarian organizations suggest the actual figure is likely higher. The conflict has also led to the displacement of approximately 13 million individuals and has pushed various parts of the country into famine conditions.

Compounding the crisis, severe drought conditions linked to the El Niño phenomenon are impacting more than half of Sudan. This environmental factor has resulted in localized crop failures and has deprived countless households of essential food sources and income. Farmers, whose livelihoods have been drastically altered, are now increasingly dependent on market purchases and external assistance to survive.

The humanitarian crisis is further evidenced by alarming rates of acute malnutrition in several areas. In Nyala, for instance, the proportion of children admitted for severe acute malnutrition within nutrition services doubled from approximately 5% to 11% between January and August. Furthermore, two displacement camps situated in South Darfur reported global acute malnutrition rates exceeding established famine thresholds.

Agricultural productivity is severely hampered across key regions. Poor vegetation growth affects 64% of croplands in North Darfur and roughly half of those in South Darfur, West Kordofan, and South Kordofan. These areas face critical water deficits and limited opportunities for agricultural recovery, directly threatening local livelihoods. North Darfur has also experienced delayed rains impacting crop cultivation and critically low food stocks, exacerbating food insecurity. Western Kordofan, based on rainfall data, is enduring one of its most severe droughts since 2004.

Humanitarian organizations consistently reiterate that an end to the conflict and guaranteed safe, sustained access for aid are indispensable for improving conditions throughout Sudan. Despite these urgent calls, repeated efforts to achieve a lasting peace have yet to halt the ongoing warfare.

Recent violence underscores the persistent instability. A recent airstrike reportedly killed at least 72 civilian miners in a border region between Sudan and Egypt, an area known for extensive artisanal and small-scale gold mining. The local rights organization Emergency Lawyers, which has recently split into two factions, alleged that Egyptian warplanes targeted the miners in Sudan’s North Wadi area, though this claim lacked corroborating evidence and could not be independently verified by the Associated Press. Separately, in June, Egyptian security forces apprehended hundreds of individuals, including foreign nationals, along the Sudanese border on charges of illegal gold mining and smuggling.

This report highlights a severe and worsening humanitarian crisis in Sudan, driven by conflict, drought, and funding shortfalls. While it does not present direct legal or compliance actions for lawyers, it serves as crucial background for those advising clients with operations, investments, or humanitarian interests in Sudan, particularly concerning risk assessments, sanctions compliance, or human rights due diligence related to supply chains or business activities in the region.

Source: Original reporting via Associated Press