ISS ACTis South Africa Corruption: AI System Detects State Capture

• The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) has developed ACTis, an AI-powered anti-corruption tracker for South Africa.
• ACTis uses artificial intelligence combined with human analysis to identify patterns and warning signs of state capture and systemic corruption in government institutions.
• Its methodology is based on a nine-flag analytical framework, drawing insights from the Zondo Commission and other research.
• An analysis of ten water sector institutions in South Africa in July 2026 revealed widespread issues, including improper senior appointments, financial malpractice, and irregular contract awards.
• The tool aims to provide early detection to prevent the costly and damaging effects of entrenched corruption, which previously cost South Africa an estimated R500 billion to R1.5 trillion.

ACTis represents a crucial shift towards preventative measures, aiming to identify emerging risks that might otherwise go unnoticed until significant damage has occurred.

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) has unveiled a sophisticated new system designed to combat corruption in South Africa, particularly focusing on early detection of state capture. This innovative Anti-Corruption Tracker information system, known as ACTis, leverages artificial intelligence to pinpoint patterns and warning signs across a diverse array of government institutions. Its primary objective is to equip government bodies, businesses, and civil society with an evidence-based foundation to intervene proactively, safeguarding public institutions before corrupt practices become deeply entrenched.

ACTis represents a crucial shift towards preventative measures, aiming to identify emerging risks that might otherwise go unnoticed until significant damage has occurred. By analyzing a broad spectrum of disaggregated public information, the system seeks to provide a comprehensive view of potential vulnerabilities. This proactive approach is vital for South Africa, a nation acutely aware of the severe consequences of delayed action against systemic corruption.

South Africa has experienced firsthand the devastating impact of state capture, a phenomenon where networks of public and private actors systematically undermine institutions for personal gain. The extensive four-year Zondo Commission, which concluded its reporting in 2022, meticulously documented how such networks compromised oversight mechanisms, diverted vast public resources, and ultimately hollowed out public institutions. The financial toll of this systemic corruption was estimated to be between R500 billion and R1.5 trillion, leading to a profound erosion of public trust and a significant decline in public service provision.

While ongoing efforts to investigate and prosecute corruption, alongside the recovery of criminal proceeds, have shown some progress, the National Anti-Corruption Strategy underscores the critical need for early detection capabilities. Traditional law enforcement often operates reactively, addressing corruption after it has taken root. Tools like the ISS ACTis are therefore essential to bridge this prevention gap, offering a forward-looking mechanism to identify and address the subtle indicators of state capture before they escalate into widespread institutional compromise.

The methodology underpinning the ISS ACTis anti-corruption tracker is robust, drawing insights from the Zondo Commission's findings, international research, and the past work of the National Anti-Corruption Advisory Council, whose term ended in August 2025. At its core is a nine-flag analytical framework designed to identify recurring features indicative of institutions that are either captured or at high risk of capture. These critical flags include improper appointments, the co-opting of key functions, the presence of a climate of fear or favour, corrupt awards, financial malpractice, obstruction of accountability, manipulation of public perceptions, private gain, and the existence of shadow networks.

ACTis employs a custom-developed artificial intelligence (AI) tool to scan vast amounts of public, verifiable evidence. This AI government corruption detection system processes court records, audit reports, parliamentary proceedings, investigative journalism, civil society reports, and verified databases to identify recurring entities, relationships, and behaviours. Human analysts then play a crucial role, assessing the credibility, context, and relevance of this evidence against predefined criteria. Their expert judgment determines whether to raise a flag, signaling an elevated risk and the necessity for further scrutiny. The presence of multiple flags suggests a systemic pattern, intensifying the urgency for intervention.

In a notable application of its capabilities, ACTis conducted an analysis of ten institutions within South Africa's water sector in July 2026, encompassing various water boards and catchment management agencies. The findings from this assessment revealed significant vulnerabilities, with six of these institutions exhibiting signs of improper senior appointments. These appointments often involved individuals who lacked suitable qualifications or possessed direct links to political party structures, raising concerns about meritocracy and undue influence.

Further insights from the analysis indicated broader systemic issues. Some of the scrutinized institutions displayed limited consequence management, alongside instances of staff intimidation and the victimisation of whistleblowers, fostering environments ripe for corruption. Indications of financial malpractice were present in nine of the ten institutions, while irregular contract awards were identified in seven. Such patterns, particularly when viewed through the lens of state capture scenarios, are rarely coincidental, underscoring the importance of tools like ACTis for enhancing South Africa public sector compliance and enabling timely, targeted interventions.

Lawyers and compliance officers advising clients on public sector contracts or engaging with government entities in South Africa should be aware of the ISS ACTis tool. Its early detection capabilities for corruption patterns signal increased scrutiny on government institutions, necessitating enhanced due diligence and robust compliance strategies for clients operating in this environment.

Source: Original reporting via an industry publication