Sénégal: Clarifier Gouvernance Hydrocarbures Pour Transformation Économique

• Experts Papa Daouda Diène and Fary Ndao argue that Senegal must clarify its hydrocarbon governance and invest in local processing and infrastructure to achieve economic transformation.
• The discussion highlighted the 'paradox of abundance' in Africa, where resource wealth often fails to benefit local populations, despite constitutional mandates like Senegal's Article 25.
• Challenges include a lack of state capital, weak regulatory frameworks, and the export of raw materials without local value addition.
• Strategic recommendations involve selecting specific value chains for investment, utilizing diverse industrial policies, and fostering regional cooperation.
• Fary Ndao, a former Petrosen executive, emphasized that local transformation supported by robust infrastructure is crucial for African development.

The debate underscored the urgency for Senegal to leverage its subsurface wealth as a catalyst for industrialization, moving beyond a simple extractive model.

A recent expert discussion highlighted the critical need for Senegal to clarify its hydrocarbon governance framework, emphasizing that merely exporting oil and gas will not fundamentally alter the nation's economic structure. Instead, experts Papa Daouda Diène and Fary Ndao advocate for bringing gas onshore, developing robust infrastructure, and establishing clear regulatory guidelines to foster genuine economic transformation.

This pressing issue was the central theme of the "Ça me dit d’experts" program, broadcast on November 7, 2026, by EvenProd Médias. Hosted by Elimane Kane and Thierno S. D. Niang, the episode delved into the pivotal role of natural resources in reshaping economic landscapes. The debate underscored the urgency for Senegal to leverage its subsurface wealth as a catalyst for industrialization, moving beyond a simple extractive model.

Elimane Kane initiated the discussion by referencing the "paradox of abundance," a phenomenon where resource-rich African nations often remain marginalized in the global economy despite vast reserves. He specifically cited Article 25 of the Senegalese Constitution, which mandates that natural resources must be exploited for the benefit of the people, while also upholding the right to a healthy environment. This constitutional principle forms the bedrock for any future policy decisions regarding resource management.

Papa Daouda Diène, a principal analyst for Francophone Africa at the Natural Resource Governance Institute, provided a broader global perspective. He noted that the energy transition and digital revolution are driving a surge in demand for minerals, with projections from the International Energy Agency indicating a potential doubling by 2040. Despite Africa holding approximately one-fifth of the world's mineral reserves essential for electric vehicles and representing 22% of global landmass, it attracts only 10% of worldwide exploration expenditure. Diène critically observed that the continent captures less than 1% of the value in clean energy supply chains, while disproportionately bearing the associated social and environmental costs. For hydrocarbons, long-term demand remains uncertain, with oil production peaks anticipated around 2030 and gas around 2035, further complicated by an average 14-year lead time from discovery to production.

Fary Ndao, a petroleum geologist and former Petrosen executive who later joined Mansa Infrastructure Partners in 2025, identified several factors contributing to Africa's developmental lag in resource exploitation. Ndao, who previously led a fertilizer project at Petrosen and authored "L'or noir du Sénégal" in 2018, pointed to the insufficient capital available to African states, contrasting this with the historical role of strong national companies and investor states in currently industrialized nations.

He further highlighted the inadequacy of regulatory frameworks and wealth redistribution policies, citing the example of gas flaring in Nigeria as a consequence. Ndao also criticized the absence of clear strategies for maximizing revenue from exhaustible resources and the prevalent practice of exporting raw materials without local transformation. To underscore the importance of infrastructure, he compared Algeria's extensive gas distribution network, spanning over 70,000 kilometers, with Nigeria's mere 500 kilometers. According to Ndao, true societal transformation in Africa will not stem from resource rents alone, but from the local processing of resources, supported by essential infrastructure such as roads, electricity grids, pipelines, and factories.

Papa Daouda Diène outlined a strategic approach for African nations, emphasizing that the initial step involves carefully selecting value chains to target, given limited capital. He illustrated this with the example of nickel, where Indonesia achieved approximately 60% additional revenue by processing ore into hydroxide precipitate, a significantly higher gain compared to the 4-5% increase seen when transforming copper into cathodes.

Diène also advocated for a diverse set of industrial tools, extending beyond mere export restrictions, which proved effective for Indonesia only when the country held a dominant market position, as with nickel but not bauxite. He further recommended maintaining strategic neutrality in relations with major global powers and fostering regional coordination to prevent a detrimental race to the bottom among African countries in attracting investment.

Lawyers advising energy companies in Senegal should monitor upcoming regulatory reforms and policy discussions regarding hydrocarbon governance and local content requirements, as the current framework is deemed unclear. This could lead to changes in licensing, operational compliance, and investment strategies, particularly concerning local value addition and the constitutional principle of resource exploitation for public benefit.

Source: Original reporting via SenePlus