Zambia’s Power Sector Is Recovering, But Who Is Getting the Electricity? Part Two: Open Access, ZESCO and the Reliability Distribution Test

• Zambia's electricity recovery has been significantly uneven across its economic sectors.
• Between 2024 and 2025, the mining industry was responsible for more than the entire net increase in recorded electricity consumption.
• Conversely, domestic, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors experienced weaker electricity consumption during the same period.
• This concentrated growth highlights an imbalance in the nation's economic and energy development.

Zambia's electricity sector has recently demonstrated a pattern of recovery, yet this resurgence has been characterized by significant unevenness across different economic segments. While overall power availability and consumption have seen an uptick, the distribution of this growth has been far from uniform, indicating a concentrated benefit rather than a broad-based improvement. This disparity suggests that the positive trends in the energy sector are not translating equally across all areas of the Zambian economy, raising questions about the sustainability and equity of the current recovery trajectory.

The observed imbalance highlights a critical aspect of Zambia's energy landscape, where certain industries are experiencing robust growth in electricity uptake, while others continue to face challenges. This unevenness is a defining characteristic of the recent period, shaping the overall narrative of the nation's power sector performance. Understanding these divergent trends is crucial for assessing the true health and developmental impact of Zambia's electricity supply.

A detailed examination of consumption patterns reveals that the mining sector has been the primary engine behind the recorded increase in electricity usage. Between 2024 and 2025, mining operations alone accounted for more than the entire net increase in recorded electricity consumption. This extraordinary contribution underscores the sector's dominant role in driving demand and absorbing available power resources during this period. The fact that mining's growth surpassed the total net increase implies that other sectors collectively either saw minimal growth or even slight declines in consumption, further emphasizing the lopsided nature of the recovery.

In stark contrast to the robust performance of the mining industry, other vital sectors of the Zambian economy experienced weaker electricity consumption. Domestic households, manufacturing industries, and agricultural enterprises all showed subdued demand, failing to mirror the significant growth observed in mining. This divergence indicates a lack of widespread economic stimulation from the electricity recovery, with key sectors that typically drive employment and broader development not benefiting commensurately from improved power availability. The persistent weakness in these areas suggests underlying challenges that prevent them from fully capitalizing on the nation's energy resources.

The highly concentrated nature of Zambia's electricity consumption growth, predominantly driven by mining, carries significant implications for the nation's economic development and energy policy. While a strong mining sector is beneficial, an over-reliance on a single industry for electricity demand growth can mask broader economic stagnation or underperformance in other critical areas. This pattern raises questions about the diversification of Zambia's economy and the extent to which energy infrastructure is supporting a balanced industrial base.

Furthermore, the weaker consumption in domestic, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors points to potential bottlenecks or systemic issues that hinder their growth, despite an overall increase in electricity supply. These could range from affordability issues for end-users to structural challenges within these industries themselves, or even specific localized power reliability concerns that are not reflected in aggregate national figures. Addressing these disparities will be key to fostering a more inclusive and resilient economic recovery, ensuring that the benefits of an improving electricity sector are felt across a wider spectrum of Zambian society.

This story signals potential changes in Zambia's electricity distribution and access framework, particularly concerning ZESCO's role and the implementation of open access principles and reliability standards. Lawyers should advise clients in energy-intensive industries on how these evolving regulations might impact their electricity supply, costs, and compliance obligations.

Source: Original reporting via News Diggers Zambia