Zambia Election Analysis: Hichilema's Mandate, Electoral Law, and Checks on Power

Late reforms and weak checks on power expose democratic fault lines and raise the stakes for Hichilema's second term. Zambia's 13 August election delivered a second five-year term for President Hakainde Hichilema. With last-minute changes to electoral law and a fragmented opposition, the result was not unexpected. Hichilema secured 60.5% of the vote, against National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP) candidate Brian Mundubile's 37.8%. The expanded National Assembly now has 226 directly elected members (up from 156) plus 40 proportional representation (PR) seats reserved for women, youth and people with disabilities. Constitutionally, the president can appoint up to 11 MPs, bringing the total to 277 seats. Follow us on WhatsApp | LinkedIn for the latest headlines So far, Hichilema's United Party for National Development (UPND) has won 138 seats, the NRPUP 60, with independents and smaller parties winning the rest. With the UPND's presidential seats and expected 24 of the 40 PR seats, the ruling party has 160 (62% of the house). Even so, the opposition retains a substantial bloc. Roughly 57% of registered voters participated, down substantially from 70% in 2021 - likely reflecting living-cost frustrations and unequal campaign conditions . Other issues also marred the polls, among them a 14 August raid by Zambian security forces on a Lusaka property, in which former transport minister Mutotwe Kafwaya was shot and killed . Eleven people, including senior opposition figures, were arrested for possessing military-grade weapons for an armed insurrection. Mundubile denied the claims, but he and senior opposition figures now face treason charges. There is a striking coincidence between this situation and Hichilema's arrest after the 2016 election for allegedly endangering the president by obstructing his motorcade. Hichilema was held in a maximum-security facility for over 100 days until the Commonwealth intervened. The Commonwealth Secretariat has again expressed concern over the current post-election climate. Several election observers noted that Zambia held a largely peaceful vote - but on an uneven playing field. The European Union (EU), Southern African Development Community and African Union-Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa missions all raised concerns about the implementation of last-minute electoral reforms. The Constitutional Amendment Act No 13 (2025) created the new 226-seat parliamentary map. Allocations were done in April, with PR seats approved in May - three months before polling. Critics say adding most new constituencies in UPND-leaning rural areas benefitted the party. Also, the PR system discouraged parties from nominating women for constituency seats, seeing seats reserved for women as a substitute for women's representation rather than being complementary. Female candidacy fell to 12.5% from 21.1% in 2021. The change in electoral rules so close to the polls created uncertainty for parties, voters and election administrators (UPND was the only party to file a candidate for all available seats). The observer missions said electoral reform should strengthen competition, not leave the rules contested just before voting. Hichilema's campaign also benefitted from his position as head of government. EU observers documented the use of state resources at campaign events and found that presidential and vice-presidential visits were exempt from the Electoral Commission of Zambia's (ECZ) five-day campaign timetable that applied to other candidates. Some unscheduled visits by Hichilema or his running mate resulted in opposition events being blocked or cancelled. Transparency International Zambia's independent monitoring matched the ECZ's tallies within 1.1%, but flagged unsealed ballot boxes (which risk tampering) and delayed announcements in 32 of 221 constituencies checked. The Christian Churches Monitoring Group found turnout implausibly exceeding its estimates in 30 constituencies. On 14 Aug