US Midterm Election Outcome: Ramaphosa Hopes for SA AGOA Re-engagement

• The US midterm elections reportedly resulted in Democrats gaining control of both the Senate and House of Representatives.
• South Africa was informed of its removal from AGOA benefits prior to these election results.
• President Cyril Ramaphosa expressed optimism for re-engagement on AGOA following the Democratic sweep.
• A US House resolution passed in 2024 to review US-South Africa relations, citing South Africa's ties with China, Russia, and Iran.
• Expert analysis suggests these underlying geopolitical concerns will remain significant sticking points, largely unaffected by changes in congressional control.

These issues are likely to stay as sticking points of the South Africa-US relations, because fundamentally the US agreed that these are their adversaries.

Following the recent United States midterm elections, the Democratic Party reportedly secured control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. This electoral shift is understood to carry significant implications for various international relationships with the United States, particularly given that former President Donald Trump was a Republican.

Prior to the finalization of these election results and South Africa's voting day, the nation had been informed of its impending removal from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) agreement, thereby losing its associated trade benefits. However, in the wake of the Democratic Party's reported success in the midterms, President Cyril Ramaphosa expressed a renewed sense of optimism. He indicated a desire for re-engagement in dialogue, hoping to potentially achieve a different outcome regarding South Africa's AGOA status.

Dr. Kingsley Makhubela, a former ambassador and director at RiskRecon, offered a contrasting perspective, stating he was not surprised by the US election results. He attributed the American voters' primary concerns to the economy and the nation's prolonged involvement in foreign conflicts, which he referred to as 'forever wars.' Dr. Makhubela also voiced his regret that South African politicians were only now expressing opinions on the US election outcome.

He highlighted a critical historical precedent: in 2024, during the Biden administration, a bill to review relations between South Africa and the United States passed the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee. This legislative action received substantial bipartisan support, with 274 Republican votes and 61 Democratic votes. The central point of contention driving this review was South Africa's relationships with China, Russia, and Iran.

Dr. Makhubela emphasized that the issues surrounding South Africa's ties with China, Russia, and Iran are not new; they were also significant under the Trump administration. He anticipates that these concerns will continue to be major sticking points in the relationship between the United States and South Africa, primarily because the US fundamentally views these three countries as adversaries.

Beyond these specific relationships, Dr. Makhubela pointed to a broader global transformation, noting the emergence of new powers and hegemonies that are perceived as challenging the United States' global influence. This evolving international dynamic further complicates the bilateral relationship, irrespective of shifts in US domestic politics.

Despite the change in congressional control, Dr. Makhubela expressed skepticism that this would translate into significant shifts in core US policy towards South Africa. He suggested that while certain nuances, such as the question of Afrikaner refugees, might see a change in emphasis from the current political establishment in Capitol Hill, the overarching policy direction would ultimately remain guided by the White House.

This perspective suggests that the fundamental geopolitical concerns that led to the review of US-South Africa relations are deeply entrenched and unlikely to be easily swayed by changes in the composition of Congress. Businesses and policymakers should therefore consider the enduring nature of these underlying issues when assessing future trade and diplomatic prospects.

While South African leadership expresses optimism regarding AGOA re-engagement following US midterm election results, legal and compliance professionals should advise clients that the underlying geopolitical concerns (SA's relations with China, Russia, Iran) that led to AGOA review are unlikely to dissipate quickly. Businesses relying on AGOA benefits should continue to monitor US legislative developments and South Africa's foreign policy shifts, as the trade landscape remains uncertain despite changes in US congressional control.

Source: Original reporting via iono.fm