South Africa Second NDC: ICJ Opinion Sets 2035 Emissions Target

• South Africa's Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets a new goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.
• The International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued an advisory opinion in 2025, clarifying that governments must take concrete steps, not just make plans, to prevent environmental harm.
• South Africa's 2035 emission target ranges from 320 million to 380 million tonnes, with the higher end jeopardizing the 1.5°C global warming limit.
• Despite enacting a new climate law in 2024 and setting specific targets, South Africa faces challenges due to its over 70% reliance on coal for electricity.
• The country depends on international climate finance to facilitate its transition from coal to green energy.

The International Court of Justice has underscored that governments must substantiate their climate commitments with tangible actions and safeguard human rights.

South Africa has progressively strengthened its commitment to addressing climate change over the past decade, culminating in its Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). This journey began with an initial pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in 2016, followed by a more ambitious pollution reduction target in 2021, and the enactment of a new climate law in 2024. The nation's most recent promise outlines a further reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, aiming to balance this environmental imperative with the protection of jobs, support for economic development, and a transition towards cleaner energy sources.

Adding a significant international dimension, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague issued an advisory opinion in 2025, outlining the obligations of global governments in preventing further climate change. South Africa actively participated in these proceedings. The ICJ unequivocally stated that merely announcing plans for greenhouse gas emission reductions is insufficient; countries must also demonstrate concrete steps taken to avert both current and future substantial environmental harm.

South Africa's Second Nationally Determined Contribution specifies an ambitious target to limit greenhouse gas emissions to a range between 320 million and 380 million tonnes by 2035. The 60 million tonne difference within this range is substantial, equating roughly to the carbon dioxide emissions produced by 13 million petrol cars operating for an entire year. Should South Africa reach the higher end of this target, emitting 380 million tonnes, it would significantly deviate from the global objective of restricting warming to 1.5°C.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) serve as comprehensive technical blueprints and pledges from individual countries, detailing their specific targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for adapting to climate change impacts. South Africa's Second Nationally Determined Contribution, therefore, acts as a critical domestic policy instrument, aligning with the broader international framework established by the Paris Agreement.

The International Court of Justice's advisory opinion provides a crucial legal interpretation of governmental duties regarding climate action. The ICJ has underscored that governments must substantiate their climate commitments with tangible actions and safeguard human rights. It further clarified that nations are expected to pursue the highest possible emissions cuts, while considering their unique national circumstances, and to rigorously enforce existing climate laws or introduce new ones as necessary. South Africa's engagement in these ICJ proceedings means it is directly implicated by these pronouncements.

This confluence of domestic pledges and international legal guidance creates a robust framework for accountability. South Africa's second climate pledge, by setting explicit targets for 2035, empowers both its citizens and the international community to scrutinize the government's actions and measure them against its stated emission reduction promises. This enhances the potential for legal and public oversight of climate policy implementation.

While South Africa has made commendable progress in establishing specific climate targets and enacting supportive legislation, significant challenges persist. A primary concern is the nation's continued heavy reliance on coal, which currently fuels over 70% of its electricity generation. This dependence raises serious questions about the feasibility of meeting its greenhouse gas emission commitments and transitioning effectively to a cleaner energy future.

Overcoming this reliance on coal necessitates substantial investment, and South Africa is dependent on international climate finance, including loans and grants, to facilitate its shift towards green energy. To truly deliver on its climate promises, the country must actively implement its climate laws, accelerate the reduction of its coal dependence, and consistently report on its progress towards the 2035 emissions targets. This ongoing transparency and action are vital for maintaining credibility and achieving its environmental goals.

The implications of South Africa's 2035 greenhouse gas emissions target are profound for global climate efforts. Achieving the lower end of its target range, 320 million tonnes, would bring the country closer to aligning with the critical 1.5°C global warming limit. However, if emissions reach the upper bound of 380 million tonnes, South Africa would be significantly off course, contributing to the broader failure to meet this crucial international climate objective.

Lawyers and compliance officers in South Africa should note that the country's Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the International Court of Justice's (ICJ) advisory opinion on climate change create a stronger basis for governmental and corporate accountability regarding emission reduction targets. This implies increased scrutiny on compliance with evolving climate legislation, potential for litigation based on unmet pledges, and the need to advise clients on aligning operations with the 2035 emission reduction goals and transitioning away from coal.

Source: Original reporting via legal analysis.