South Africa: Emissions Targets Too Easy, Says Climate Tracker

• South Africa's current greenhouse gas emission targets are rated as "insufficient" by the Climate Action Tracker, suggesting they are not aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
• The country's estimated net 2024 emissions of 444 Mt fall within its 2025 target range, with past reductions largely attributed to economic stagnation and load shedding, not intentional greening efforts.
• The energy sector alone emitted 375 Mt in 2024, exceeding the lower 2030 target of 350 Mt, and future reduction targets face uncertainty due to conditional coal plant retirements and potential extensions of older facilities.
• Analysts from Just Share criticize South Africa's 2035 emissions target as "unambitious," noting that existing policies could already achieve it without further effort.
• Failure to demonstrate serious commitment to clean energy transition risks South Africa losing international finance and facing carbon taxes from importing countries.

A target that doesn’t ask anything of you isn’t anything more than a formality.

South Africa, a signatory to the 2015 Paris Agreement, is obligated to establish greenhouse gas emission targets aimed at restricting global warming to between 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Despite this international commitment, an independent analysis by the Climate Action Tracker has deemed South Africa's current targets as "insufficient." The tracker's assessment indicates that if other nations adopted a similar approach, global warming would likely exceed 2°C, potentially reaching 3°C.

To align with the 1.5°C warming limit, the Climate Action Tracker suggests that South Africa should implement a 40% reduction in its emissions between 2022 and 2035. However, the country's existing target range for this period represents a significantly smaller cut, ranging from 16% to 29%. This disparity raises questions about whether South Africa emissions targets are too easy to achieve, potentially undermining collective global efforts to combat climate change.

According to the latest draft national inventory, South Africa's estimated net greenhouse gas emissions for 2024 stood at approximately 444 million tonnes (Mt), a figure that falls within the country's 2025 target range. This net total accounts for 477 Mt emitted and 33 Mt absorbed by natural land sinks, such as forests and grasslands. While the nation's emissions peaked in 2008 and have shown an uneven decline since, this reduction has not primarily been due to deliberate greening initiatives.

The Presidential Climate Commission emissions analysis suggests that economic stagnation and persistent load shedding have been the primary drivers behind the observed decrease in emissions. However, with the easing of load shedding in 2024, the energy sector has seen an increase in emissions as Eskom, the national power utility, has burned more coal. The overall reduction in total emissions is largely attributed to an estimated increase in carbon absorption by land, an estimate that carries a degree of uncertainty, with the inventory noting that some recorded land changes might be linked to rainfall rather than fundamental shifts in carbon sequestration.

The energy sector alone contributed 375 Mt to emissions in 2024, a figure that already surpasses the lower end of the 2030 target of 350 Mt. To meet the upper bound of the 2030 target, emissions must decrease by an additional 24 Mt, while reaching the lower bound would require a substantial 94 Mt reduction. Achieving these targets is not guaranteed, particularly given the government's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2025), which proposes retiring 8 GW of coal capacity by 2030, but only if 6 GW of new gas power becomes operational by then—a condition fraught with uncertainty. The plan also contemplates extending the operational life of five major power stations beyond their 50-year lifespan, and Eskom has already postponed the closure of five coal stations to 2030 due to delays in bringing private power online.

Last year, South Africa unveiled its 2035 emissions target, with the lower end set at 320 Mt. Research conducted by the University of Cape Town, commissioned by the government, indicates that implementing existing policies, including the Renewable Energy Masterplan, could naturally lead to emissions falling within a range of 289 Mt to 359 Mt by 2035. This finding has fueled Just Share climate target criticism, with Déna Jansen stating that the targets are "so unambitious that we could hit them by doing what industry and government have already promised to do, without lifting a finger further." Déna Jansen further highlighted that the upper end of 380 Mt often becomes the practical operating target, concluding that "A target that doesn’t ask anything of you isn’t anything more than a formality."

The perceived lack of ambition in South Africa's emissions reduction strategy carries significant economic and international risks. Déna Jansen warns that if the country fails to demonstrate a serious commitment to transitioning towards clean energy, it risks losing access to crucial international finance. This could severely hamper development and infrastructure projects that rely on global investment.

Furthermore, a critical concern is the potential imposition of a carbon tax by importing countries, a mechanism often referred to as a South Africa carbon border adjustment. Such taxes could increase the cost of South African exports, making them less competitive in international markets and potentially impacting key industries. This underscores the urgent need for South Africa to reassess its Paris Agreement targets and accelerate its decarbonization efforts to safeguard its economic future and maintain its standing in the global climate agenda.

Lawyers and compliance officers should advise clients, particularly those in carbon-intensive industries or involved in international trade, to monitor evolving global carbon border adjustment mechanisms. South Africa's perceived lack of ambition in emissions reductions could expose businesses to increased compliance costs or reduced access to international finance if importing countries impose carbon taxes.

Source: Original reporting via GroundUp and The Outlier