Sheinbaum: US Midterm Results Won't Alter US-Mexico Relations

• Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that US-Mexico relations will remain unchanged despite the US midterm election results.
• Sheinbaum noted that USMCA trade discussions are handled by the executive branch, not Congress, and the US declined to renew the agreement in July.
• Experts predict that former President Trump's foreign policy towards Mexico, including issues like immigration and trade, will likely continue unchanged due to presidential authority.
• Mexico was compelled to deliver large amounts of water to the U.S. by December 2025 to avoid 5% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
• Despite Republican midterm losses, a Democratic congressional majority cannot override presidential executive orders, meaning continued pressure on migration and deportations is expected.

The core issues defining the binational agenda between Mexico and the United States are expected to remain consistent, regardless of shifts in the U.S. Congress.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum recently commented on the outcomes of the United States midterm elections, highlighting specific victories while asserting that the fundamental nature of US-Mexico relations would persist largely unchanged. During her Wednesday press conference, Sheinbaum acknowledged the success of two individuals of Mexican heritage, specifically naming Xavier Becerra and Gina Hinojosa as the governor-elect of California and Texas, respectively. Despite these triumphs and what she characterized as a significant rejection of Donald Trump's presidency by American voters, Sheinbaum maintained that the bilateral relationship would not be altered.

Sheinbaum articulated Mexico's consistent objective for its relationship with the United States, emphasizing a desire for the most favorable connection possible. This desired relationship, she stated, must uphold Mexico's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and be founded on principles of collaboration rather than subordination. This perspective aligns with observations from experts, who also noted that the power structures governing the relationship between the two nations are expected to remain consistent, irrespective of the electoral setbacks experienced by former President Trump's party.

A critical aspect of the ongoing US-Mexico relationship, particularly concerning economic ties, involves the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). President Sheinbaum pointed out that discussions surrounding this trade pact are primarily conducted through the executive branch of the U.S. government, rather than Congress. The United States opted not to renew the USMCA trade agreement in July, and its review, despite the agreement being effective until 2036, is slated to continue annually or until all three signatory countries consent to an extension.

This executive-centric approach to foreign policy underscores a key dynamic in bilateral relations. Tony Payan, executive director of the Claudio X. González Center for the U.S. and Mexico at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, emphasized that the U.S. president holds significant sway in foreign policy matters, effectively acting as the ultimate authority in this domain. Payan suggested that former President Trump's future actions concerning Mexico would largely depend on the Democratic party's strategy towards him, noting that Trump might intensify certain policies, given the broad authority afforded to the executive in international affairs.

The core issues defining the binational agenda between Mexico and the United States are expected to remain consistent, regardless of shifts in the U.S. Congress. According to Payan, these enduring challenges include immigration, trade, organized crime, security, and the critical issue of water sharing. He specifically cited the contentious matter of water distribution, noting that former President Trump's firm stance previously compelled Mexico to commence delivering substantial volumes of water to the U.S. by December 2025. This action was necessary to settle Mexico's water debt and avert the imposition of 5% tariffs by the U.S.

Payan further cautioned that if President Sheinbaum anticipates a softening of the Trump administration's agenda on these four key areas due to a change in congressional composition, such an expectation would be misplaced. A report from the political risk consultancy Integralia corroborated this view, indicating that while former President Trump retains extensive authority over tariffs, Republican losses in the midterms could potentially lead to internal party pressure for moderation on some trade measures to mitigate future political costs leading up to 2028. However, the report also highlighted that a Democratic majority in Congress cannot independently overturn presidential executive orders. Consequently, Mexico should anticipate ongoing pressure from the Trump administration regarding the containment of migration flows and the acceptance of deported individuals, a policy that saw 980,000 deportations during the first 18 months of Trump's presidency.

Lawyers and compliance officers should advise clients engaged in US-Mexico trade or operations to monitor the ongoing USMCA review and potential tariff actions, as executive authority in foreign policy suggests continuity in these areas despite US midterm election outcomes. Businesses should prepare for consistent pressure on immigration and border security policies, regardless of shifts in US congressional power.

Source: Original reporting via CN.