Macky Sall: UN Secretary-General Vote Prospects Dim After Poll

• The UN is in the final stages of selecting Antonio Guterres's successor, with the new Secretary-General taking office on January 1, 2027.
• Two African candidates, Macky Sall of Senegal and Olara Otunnu of Uganda, have struggled to gain sufficient support in initial confidential straw polls.
• Macky Sall's candidacy is weakened by late official backing, domestic divisions over his legacy, and accusations of corruption and electoral violence.
• Olara Otunnu, despite his respected UN background, faces challenges due to his late entry and a complex political track record.
• An unwritten custom of regional rotation, which informally favors candidates from Latin America and the Caribbean this year, is further hindering African prospects.

The initial straw poll reportedly underscored the fragility of Macky Sall's UN Secretary-General candidacy.

The global community is closely watching as the United Nations enters the final stages of selecting a successor to Antonio Guterres, whose second five-year term as Secretary-General concludes on December 31. The new Secretary-General is slated to assume office on January 1, 2027, with the formal appointment expected by October of this year. The intricate selection process, as outlined by the UN Charter, is primarily spearheaded by the 15-member Security Council.

This council conducts a series of confidential, non-binding "straw polls" to gauge support for the various contenders. During these initial ballots, members indicate their stance by voting to "encourage," "discourage," or express "no opinion" on each candidate. Subsequent rounds introduce color-coded ballots, designed to reveal whether any of the five permanent members—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—intend to exercise their veto power. The first such straw poll occurred on July 30, with additional rounds anticipated throughout August and potentially extending into September and October, continuing until a single candidate secures widespread backing without facing a permanent member's veto. Once a candidate achieves this, the Security Council formally recommends them to the 193-member General Assembly, which is then expected to confirm the appointment before the year's end.

Currently, two candidates from the African continent have put their names forward for the prestigious role: Macky Sall, the former president of Senegal, and Olara Otunnu, a seasoned Ugandan diplomat. However, early indications suggest a challenging path for both. According to Carlos Lopes, a law professor in South Africa and former executive secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, the continent's prospects for securing the top UN post this year appear dim, a sentiment reinforced by the outcome of the initial vote in late July.

The initial straw poll reportedly underscored the fragility of Macky Sall's UN Secretary-General candidacy. Lopes pointed out that the official endorsement from Senegal's current President, Bassirou Faye, arrived late and was insufficient to restore what he termed "institutional coherence." This is largely attributed to significant internal divisions within Senegal regarding Sall's legacy and his bid for the international position. Furthermore, Sall's candidacy has been met with a poor reception among Senegalese citizens, stemming from accusations of corruption and embezzlement linked to his government's management of Covid-19 funds, as well as allegations of inciting electoral violence during the 2024 polls. There are also reports that the former president could face charges following a public finances report, adding another layer of complexity to his international aspirations.

Uganda's Olara Otunnu, while a respected figure within UN circles—having served as Uganda's permanent representative and played a pivotal role in establishing the "straw poll" system—faces his own set of obstacles. Lopes noted that despite Otunnu's significant historical contributions, his late entry into the race is a considerable disadvantage. Moreover, Otunnu's political track record is described as difficult to interpret, marked by inconsistencies and a strained relationship with Uganda's current president. Consequently, his diplomatic standing is perceived as more rooted in past achievements than in his present political reality. A critical factor undermining both candidacies is the absence of official support from the African Union, a customary endorsement that would typically bolster an African bid.

Beyond individual candidate profiles, an unwritten custom within the UN selection process, known as regional rotation, is significantly impacting the current race. This principle dictates that leadership posts should alternate among the UN's five geographic regional blocs, aiming to ensure equitable global representation. Carlos Lopes contends that this year, the informal understanding of regional rotation favors candidates from Latin America and the Caribbean, thereby weakening any African bid.

Lopes expressed concern that Africa risks appearing to challenge a principle from which it has historically benefited. He highlighted that previous African Secretaries-General, Boutros Boutros-Ghali and Kofi Annan, garnered broad support from other regions of the Global South precisely because their candidacies aligned with this rotation logic. Undermining this established custom, Lopes warned, could set a precedent that ultimately works to Africa's disadvantage in future selections. He concluded that this very dynamic is already undermining both Macky Sall's UN SG candidacy and Olara Otunnu's from the outset, making the path to the top UN role particularly arduous for the African contenders.

Lawyers advising clients on international governance, multilateral diplomacy, or political risk in Africa should monitor the UN Secretary-General selection process to understand the evolving political dynamics, the influence of unwritten customs like regional rotation, and how a candidate's domestic legal and political standing can impact their international viability.

Source: Original reporting via RFI