Senegal: Sylla, Cencini Detail One-Country Reform Debt Proposal

• Economists Ndongo Samba Sylla and Alvaro Cencini propose a "one-country reform" for Senegal's debt crisis, focusing on international payments architecture.
• The plan involves a National Payments Bureau and a counter-loan mechanism to retain the local currency equivalent of external deficits domestically.
• This reform could have allowed Senegal to retain 4,000 to 4,500 billion CFA francs in 2023 for national development.
• Implementation requires increased monetary sovereignty, potentially necessitating Senegal's exit from UMOA and abandonment of the CFA franc, or a regional monetary system transformation.
• The proposal aims to shift from austerity to a systemic reform of payment architecture, regaining control over monetary circuits for external trade.

Lawyers and compliance officers should closely monitor these political and legislative developments, as potential changes could significantly alter the operational landscape for businesses and financial institutions engaged with Senegal.

Economists Ndongo Samba Sylla and Alvaro Cencini have put forth a significant proposal, dubbed the "Senegal one-country reform debt proposal," aimed at fundamentally reshaping the nation's approach to its financial obligations. Their analysis, detailed in an economic policy note highlighted in an article by Mor Amar on September 4, 2026, posits that the country's debt crisis extends beyond recently uncovered "hidden loans." Instead, they argue that the core issue lies within the existing architecture of international payments, with undisclosed borrowings merely exacerbating a deeper structural vulnerability.

At the heart of their "réforme un seul pays Sénégal" is a mechanism designed to allow Senegal to regain control over its monetary flows. The central idea involves establishing a National Payments Bureau, which would operate with two distinct departments. One department would manage domestic transactions conducted in CFA francs, while the other would oversee external settlements requiring foreign currency. This innovative structure aims to ensure that the local currency equivalent of Senegal's external deficit remains within the national economy, even as all obligations to foreign creditors are met in full.

The proposed system hinges on a sophisticated counter-loan arrangement. Under this model, Senegal would continue to secure the necessary foreign exchange to cover its import costs. Simultaneously, the newly formed National Payments Bureau would extend an equivalent loan to the "rest of the world." Sylla and Cencini contend that this dual operation would effectively neutralize the monetary impact of any additional indebtedness, thereby preventing the automatic accumulation of external debt without compromising the nation's commitments to its lenders. This approach seeks to address the underlying systemic issues rather than merely treating symptoms.

Sylla and Cencini's analysis highlights a critical flaw in the current international payments architecture, particularly for nations like Senegal that consistently import more than they export. They describe a "double payment" phenomenon: a country not only bears the actual cost of its imports but is also compelled to borrow foreign currency to settle these external transactions. This dynamic, they argue, diverts national wealth that could otherwise be retained domestically.

Illustrating this point with Senegal's 2023 economic data, the economists note that the country imported goods and services valued at approximately 6,000 billion CFA francs, while its exports amounted to roughly 2,000 billion CFA francs. This resulted in a substantial external deficit of approximately 4,000 billion CFA francs. According to their framework, this significant difference represents a national currency counterpart that, under the proposed reform, could be retained within the Senegalese economy instead of being absorbed by the prevailing foreign exchange settlement mechanisms.

The financial implications of implementing this "Senegal one-country reform debt proposal" are estimated to be considerable. Sylla and Cencini project that Senegal could have retained between 4,000 and 4,500 billion CFA francs in 2023 alone through this mechanism. This substantial sum, they suggest, would be transferred directly to the national Treasury, earmarked for crucial investments in production, infrastructure development, healthcare, and education. A recent presentation by Sylla reiterated the 4,500 billion CFA francs estimate, specifically referencing the external deficit excluding trade within the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). This perspective directly challenges the efficacy of traditional responses like budgetary austerity and debt restructuring, which they argue fail to address the root cause embedded in the international payments architecture.

The implementation of the "Senegal one-country reform debt proposal" carries profound legal and institutional implications, particularly concerning Senegal's monetary sovereignty and its relationship with regional financial structures. The economists acknowledge that their proposed system, in its current form, necessitates a significant increase in national monetary autonomy. This requirement directly impacts the legal framework governing the CFA franc and Senegal's participation in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UMOA).

Two primary pathways are identified for Senegal to adopt this reform. One option involves the nation's withdrawal from UMOA and the subsequent abandonment of the CFA franc, a move that would grant it full control over its monetary policy and international payments architecture. Alternatively, Senegal could endeavor to persuade other UMOA member states to collectively transform the regional monetary system, integrating a similar compensation mechanism across the union. Both scenarios present complex political and legislative challenges, requiring careful consideration by legal and compliance professionals monitoring developments in Senegal international payments architecture.

Ultimately, the core objective of the "Ndongo Samba Sylla Alvaro Cencini debt" proposal is to empower Senegal to regain command over the monetary circuits through which it conducts its international trade. This shift from an austerity-driven approach to a systemic reform of the payment architecture would have far-reaching effects on foreign exchange regulations, cross-border transaction mechanisms, and the legal enforceability of financial contracts within the country. Lawyers and compliance officers should closely monitor these political and legislative developments, as potential changes could significantly alter the operational landscape for businesses and financial institutions engaged with Senegal.

Lawyers and compliance officers should monitor the political and legislative developments surrounding the 'one-country reform' proposal in Senegal. Its potential implementation could lead to significant changes in foreign exchange regulations, international payment mechanisms, and the legal framework governing the CFA franc, impacting cross-border transactions and financial contracts.

Source: Original reporting via EnQuête, September 4, 2026.