Rwanda: Parliament Addresses Rwanda Hydropower Capacity Challenges

• Rwanda's parliament questioned energy officials about recurring electricity shortages, particularly during dry seasons when hydropower output significantly drops.
• Studies indicate Rwanda's rivers are generally too small for large-scale hydropower, and the terrain limits large dam construction due to environmental impacts.
• Hydropower currently accounts for approximately 40% of Rwanda's electricity supply, delivered through 37 grid-connected and 11 off-grid plants.
• The government is pursuing an energy diversification strategy, investing in new hydropower projects like the 43.5-megawatt Nyabarongo II dam (75% complete), and expanding solar and Lake Kivu methane gas generation.
• Rwanda aims to increase installed electricity capacity and achieve universal electricity access by 2030, under its second National Strategy for Transformation period (2024-2029).

The strategic shift towards a more balanced energy mix, incorporating solar, methane, and new hydropower projects like the Nyabarongo II dam progress, is vital not only for meeting current demand but also for ensuring long-term energy security and facilitating sustainable development across the country.

Rwanda's heavy reliance on hydropower has come under sharp scrutiny in Parliament, following persistent electricity shortages exacerbated by dwindling water levels during dry seasons. On September 10, senators convened to question officials from the Rwanda Energy Group (REG) regarding the recurring power deficits and their potential to derail the nation's ambitious industrialization plans. Senator Fulgence Nsengiyumva voiced significant concern, highlighting the vulnerability of the electricity system when water levels decline. He noted that power generation during the dry season has plummeted to between 200 and 235 Megawatts, a substantial reduction directly attributable to decreased water availability.

Nsengiyumva critically questioned whether these Rwanda electricity shortages could undermine efforts to attract industrial investors, expressing dismay that promises of reliable electricity supply to new factories might not be met. His concerns were echoed by fellow Senators Frank Habineza and Penina Uwimbabazi, underscoring a broad parliamentary apprehension about the nation's energy security. The senator urged the government to accelerate its Rwanda energy diversification strategy, advocating for greater utilization of solar, peat, and methane gas, resources he emphasized are not subject to the same depletion risks as water. This parliamentary debate brought to the forefront the pressing Rwanda hydropower capacity challenges facing the country.

Claver Gakwavu, Managing Director of the Energy Utility Corporation Limited (EUCL), a subsidiary of REG responsible for electricity distribution, attributed the reduced hydropower output primarily to climate change and drought conditions. He further elaborated that studies consistently indicate Rwanda's rivers are inherently too small to support large-scale hydropower generation, unlike the more substantial river systems found in countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya, or Uganda. This geographical reality presents a fundamental Rwanda hydropower capacity challenge.

Moreover, Rwanda's rugged terrain imposes limitations on the construction of extensive dams, largely due to potential environmental and water-related impacts. Despite these constraints, hydropower currently constitutes approximately 40% of the nation's electricity supply, delivered through 37 grid-connected plants and 11 off-grid micro-hydropower networks. This includes contributions from significant facilities like the 80-megawatt Rusumo Hydroelectric Power Station, from which Rwanda receives a 27-megawatt share, and the 28-megawatt Nyabarongo I plant, alongside numerous smaller run-of-the-river installations. The Rusizi River is identified as having the most significant potential for additional hydropower, though regional challenges have historically impeded joint projects involving riparian nations.

In response to these inherent limitations and current Rwanda electricity shortages, the government is actively pursuing a comprehensive Rwanda energy diversification strategy. This includes significant investments in new hydropower capacity, exemplified by the 43.5-megawatt Nyabarongo II Multipurpose Dam, which is approximately 75% complete and slated for operation by December 2027. Further regional hydropower initiatives are planned, such as the 206-megawatt Rusizi III plant, expected to provide Rwanda with about 68 megawatts, and the 287-megawatt Rusizi IV project, from which Rwanda anticipates receiving approximately 95 megawatts.

Beyond hydropower, the Rwanda Energy Group (REG) is actively exploring and expanding other energy sources. Solar generation is a key focus, though officials acknowledge that large-scale solar projects demand considerable land, with an estimated one hectare required to generate a single megawatt of power. Furthermore, methane gas extracted from Lake Kivu is projected to play an increasingly vital role in bolstering Rwanda's electricity supply, aligning with the broader strategy to reduce reliance on climate-vulnerable sources. The emphasis on Lake Kivu methane gas energy is a critical component of this forward-looking approach.

Rwanda currently possesses an installed electricity generation capacity of 467.142 megawatts, but the government has set ambitious targets to increase this during the second National Strategy for Transformation (NST2) period (2024-2029). This expansion is crucial for supporting the nation's economic growth and industrialization objectives, directly addressing concerns about Rwanda industrialisation electricity supply. The government's commitment extends to universal electricity access, aiming to reach 100% of the population by 2030, building on the current access rate of 85.4%.

However, the persistent challenge of actual electricity generation falling during the dry season, primarily due to the limitations of hydropower, underscores the urgency of these diversification efforts. The strategic shift towards a more balanced energy mix, incorporating solar, methane, and new hydropower projects like the Nyabarongo II dam progress, is vital not only for meeting current demand but also for ensuring long-term energy security and facilitating sustainable development across the country. The successful implementation of this Rwanda energy diversification strategy is paramount for achieving national development aspirations.

Lawyers advising clients on industrial investments or energy-intensive operations in Rwanda should assess the implications of current electricity supply vulnerabilities and the government's long-term energy diversification strategy on project feasibility and operational continuity. Compliance officers should monitor regulatory developments related to new energy sources and potential impacts on energy costs or reliability.

Source: Original reporting via Rwandan news outlets