Poll puts Talarico a step ahead of Paxton in race for US Senate

The poll released by Emerson College continues to fuel Democrats' hopes of flipping the U.S. Senate seat. Just as the legislature was beginning a special session to, in part, redraw the state's congressional maps in favor of the GOP, State Representative James Talarico rallied with fellow Democrats, speaking out against Republicans plans. July 25, 2025 (Kirk McDaniel/Courthouse News) (CN) — Weeks ahead of Texans selecting a new U.S. senator, Democratic state Representative James Talarico continues to hold a narrow lead over Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a new Emerson College poll released Thursday. Among likely Texas voters, 48% support Talarico while 46% break for Paxton. While the findings continue the trend of Talarico holding the lead, the results are still within the 3% margin of error. In order for Talarico to secure a win in the historically red state, he will have win over the 5% of undecided voters found in the survey. When asked which candidate they lean more toward, Paxton gets a two-point boost, bringing him to 48%, while Talarico manages to edge out a single point, bringing him to 49%. Ted Brown, the Libertarian in the U.S. Senate race, gets a boost in support as well, taking him from 1% to 3%. However, Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Libertarian voters could play a decisive role in the election if they change their minds. “If support for the Libertarian candidate, who is at 3% on the final ballot, melts between now and Election Day, Paxton will likely see his vote share increase, as these third-party voters are primarily independents or Republicans,” Kimball said. “If it holds, Talarico benefits.” Talarico has maintained a lead since Paxton won his party’s nomination in May, beating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a runoff election with the help of an endorsement from President Donald Trump. On Oct. 14, the University of Texas at Austin’s Texas Politics Project found likely voters preferred Talarico over Paxton 50% to 47%, respectively. Emerson College also gauged Texans’ leanings in the race for governor. Republican Greg Abbott, who is running to lead the state for a fourth term, faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa, a state representative from Austin. Recent polls have shown Hinojosa gaining in the race, but all signs point to Abbott having the edge. Abbott carried 49% of likely voters’ support in the Emmerson College poll, with Hinojosa trailing behind at 45% and Libertarian Pat Dixon bringing in 1%. Of the 4% of voters who are still undecided, they are split evenly on leaning toward voting Democrat or Republican, bringing Abbott to 51% and Hinojosa to 47%. As for what issues are top of mind for voters in the state, 39% say the economy remains their chief concern. Immigration came at 16%, followed by threats to democracy at 13%, education at 12% and healthcare at 9%. Early voting in Texas began on Monday, with prior first-day turnout records being smashed in the five most populous counties in the state. Democrats are hoping that with greater turnout they may finally win their first statewide race in over 30 years. Republicans, on the other hand, have campaigned hard to keep the Lone Star State firmly in their camp, with Trump even hosting rallies on behalf of Paxton. Those appearances are in addition to the midterm “convention” the GOP held in Dallas in September. With the final two years of Trump’s presidency on the line, Texas will be a key state to watch come election night. Early voting in Texas runs through Oct. 30. Election Day is Nov. 3. Our weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.