Namibia: Migrant Worker Attitudes Questioned Amidst Resource Boom

• Namibia anticipates a significant influx of foreign workers due to major resource discoveries and green hydrogen projects, including TotalEnergies' Venus and Hyphen Green Hydrogen.
• An early 2024 Afrobarometer survey reveals that three-quarters of Namibians desire fewer or no foreign job seekers.
• This widespread opposition is evenly distributed across the population, not limited to specific demographic groups.
• Namibians exhibit a 'principle-practice gap,' showing abstract social tolerance but strong economic protectionism regarding foreign labor competition.
• Companies like TotalEnergies and Hyphen Green Hydrogen must prepare for potential social license challenges and stricter immigration policies due to public sentiment.

This widespread sentiment reveals a significant 'principle-practice gap,' where Namibians express abstract openness to regional free movement and immigrants as neighbors, yet demonstrate strong protectionist views when the discussion shifts to foreign workers competing for jobs.

Namibia is on the cusp of a significant economic transformation, driven by major resource discoveries that are projected to attract a substantial influx of foreign workers within the next decade. These anticipated arrivals will be concentrated, highly visible, and well-compensated, a phenomenon largely unprecedented in the nation's history. Key among these developments are the deepwater discoveries in the Orange Basin, including TotalEnergies' Venus and the Mopane complex, alongside the multi-billion-dollar Hyphen Green Hydrogen project situated at Tsau //Khaeb.

These ambitious projects are set to generate considerable demand for both skilled and semi-skilled labour. However, the Namibian government itself acknowledges that the domestic workforce currently lacks the immediate capacity to meet this demand. This demand-side pull for international talent converges with broader policy initiatives, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the African Union's Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons, which envisions greater mobility for workers across the continent but has not yet entered into force due to insufficient ratifications. This context is further complicated by the cautionary example of neighboring South Africa, where movements like Operation Dudula have transformed diffuse anti-immigrant sentiment into organized exclusionary actions, including vigilante document checks and blockades, leading to state-led deportations that courts have only partially curbed.

Against this backdrop, the crucial question arises: how will Namibians receive these incoming migrant workers? This inquiry is particularly pertinent given that the friction points of a resource boom often revolve around the distribution of new job opportunities. The South African experience underscores how rapidly economic anxieties can coalesce into exclusionary political movements. Despite its importance, this area has been largely under-researched in Namibia, which has been notably absent from comparative literature on African migration attitudes. The most recent dedicated survey of Namibian public opinion on migration predates both the Southern African Development Community (SADC) integration debates and the current resource boom entirely.

To address this empirical gap, the Afrobarometer's Round 10 survey, conducted in Namibia in early 2024, included an extensive migration module. Its central finding reveals a pervasive sentiment: three-quarters of Namibians express a desire for fewer or no foreign job seekers. Crucially, this restrictionist stance is not confined to specific demographic groups such as the unemployed, the poor, the less educated, or those residing in border regions; instead, it is remarkably evenly distributed across the entire population. This widespread sentiment reveals a significant 'principle-practice gap,' where Namibians express abstract openness to regional free movement and immigrants as neighbors, yet demonstrate strong protectionist views when the discussion shifts to foreign workers competing for jobs.

Further analysis from the Afrobarometer survey clarifies that this apparent contradiction is not a single, inconsistent attitude, but rather the coexistence of two distinct dimensions: economic restrictionism and social tolerance, which are driven by different factors. This nuanced perspective is vital for understanding the country's unique position. Namibia's own history is deeply intertwined with migrant labor, notably through the contract system that channeled workers from northern reserves to mines, farms, and fisheries within the settler-controlled 'Police Zone.' This system was fundamental to the colonial economy and played a central role in the liberation struggle that ultimately dismantled it.

Thus, a nation whose very identity was partly forged in resistance to the coerced movement of labor now confronts the challenge of integrating labor that moves freely. When benchmarked against 14 SADC neighbors, Namibia occupies a distinct attitudinal position. While it exhibits a restrictive stance on foreign labor, it maintains a socially tolerant outlook. This contrasts sharply with South Africa, which demonstrates hostility on both labor and social fronts, highlighting Namibia's unique socio-political landscape regarding migration.

The findings from the Afrobarometer survey carry significant implications for companies like TotalEnergies and Hyphen Green Hydrogen, as well as for the Namibian government. Companies operating or planning projects in Namibia, particularly in the resource sector, must anticipate and strategize for widespread public opposition to foreign workers, which could lead to stricter immigration policies, local content demands, and social license challenges. Even with a socially tolerant populace, the strong economic protectionism regarding jobs means that reliance on foreign expertise will likely face public scrutiny and potential resistance.

Legal and compliance teams within these organizations should prepare for potential shifts in labor and immigration regulations. Proactive measures, such as robust community engagement strategies and comprehensive local workforce development plans, will be essential to mitigate operational and reputational risks. Addressing these deeply held public sentiments will be critical for ensuring the long-term viability and social acceptance of Namibia's burgeoning resource and green energy sectors.

Companies operating or planning projects in Namibia, particularly in the resource sector, must anticipate and strategize for widespread public opposition to foreign workers, which could lead to stricter immigration policies, local content demands, and social license challenges. Legal and compliance teams should prepare for potential shifts in labour and immigration regulations and advise on robust community engagement and local workforce development plans to mitigate operational and reputational risks.

Source: Insights derived from recent Afrobarometer survey data.