Madagascar: Refondation Roadmap Outlines Post-Coup Transition

• Madagascar is currently in a critical phase of political transition, following a military coup in October 2025, focusing on organizing its post-provisional period.
• A "Refondation roadmap," officially presented in February 2026, guides this transition, outlining key steps for future governance.
• The roadmap mandates a national consultation and a comprehensive reform of electoral governance.
• It also includes the preparation of a new Constitution for the Fifth Republic, following the suspension of the previous constitution in October 2025.
• The ultimate goal is the organization of subsequent political processes, including presidential elections planned for late 2027, to conclude the transition.

This proactive approach to managing the end of a transitional period is often more impactful than the initial power shift, as it directly influences the legitimacy and durability of the institutions that will emerge.

Madagascar is currently navigating a pivotal phase in its political evolution, following a military coup in October 2025, characterized by a military-led transitional government actively shaping the framework for its own eventual departure. This period, often less visible than the initial assumption of power or the subsequent electoral contests, holds profound significance for the nation's future trajectory. It represents a critical juncture where temporary authorities dedicate themselves to establishing the conditions for a stable and legitimate post-transitional era.

The current situation in Madagascar reflects this precise dynamic, as the country's leadership focuses on orchestrating the mechanisms that will define its succession and the subsequent political landscape. This phase of organizing the 'after-provisional' period is frequently more decisive than the initial power seizure or the actual election itself, as it lays the foundational rules for future governance.

Central to Madagascar's efforts to manage its political transition, initiated after the October 2025 coup, is the comprehensive "Refondation roadmap," officially presented in February 2026. This strategic document outlines a series of fundamental steps designed to guide the nation through its current provisional state and into a new constitutional order. The roadmap specifically mandates four key initiatives, each crucial for establishing a robust and democratic future legal framework.

Firstly, it calls for a nationwide consultation process, intended to gather broad input and consensus from various segments of society. This "concertation nationale" is a foundational element for ensuring legitimacy and public buy-in for the upcoming changes. Secondly, the roadmap prioritizes a thorough reform of electoral governance, aiming to enhance the fairness, transparency, and credibility of future polls. This overhaul is essential for restoring public trust in democratic institutions.

Thirdly, a significant undertaking involves the preparation of a new Constitution for what is envisioned as the Fifth Republic, following the suspension of the previous constitution in October 2025, a process that will redefine the fundamental laws and governmental structure of the nation. Finally, the roadmap includes provisions for the organization of subsequent political processes, which are implicitly understood to be the elections that will formally conclude the transitional period and usher in the new constitutional order, with presidential elections planned for late 2027.

The concerted efforts outlined in the Refondation roadmap underscore the military-led transitional government's commitment to meticulously structuring its exit and laying the groundwork for Madagascar's long-term political stability. By focusing on a national consultation, electoral governance reform, and the drafting of a new V Republic Constitution, the current administration is actively defining the parameters of the future legal framework.

This proactive approach to managing the end of a transitional period is often more impactful than the initial power shift, as it directly influences the legitimacy and durability of the institutions that will emerge. The successful implementation of these roadmap components is therefore paramount for Madagascar to achieve a smooth and widely accepted political transition, ultimately shaping the nation's governance for years to come.

Source: Original reporting via French analysis.