ICCT Plug-in Hybrid Emissions Study: Real-World CO2 3.5x Higher

• A new study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) reveals plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) pollute significantly more in real-world driving than official type-approval figures suggest.
• Real-world CO2 emissions from PHEVs registered between 2021 and 2023 were found to be 3.5 to 4.6 times higher than their type-approval values.
• This discrepancy stems from flawed regulatory assumptions about battery usage, which do not align with actual driving patterns.
• The ICCT, known for its role in "Dieselgate," urges the EU to update its emissions calculations by 2027 using real-world data.
• The study's findings complicate ongoing debates about the EU's auto decarbonization strategy and automaker emissions compliance, particularly as some carmakers advocate for continued PHEV inclusion.

Crucially, the study also reveals how these discrepancies skew the determination of automaker emissions compliance within the EU.

A recent study published by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), an environmental research group, has brought to light significant discrepancies in the real-world performance of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The comprehensive ICCT plug-in hybrid emissions study, released on Thursday, indicates that these vehicles are polluting substantially more than consumers typically anticipate, largely because they operate on battery power less frequently than regulatory frameworks assume. This finding challenges the prevailing perception of PHEVs as a low-emission solution.

The study meticulously analyzed data collected from the onboard monitors of approximately 920,000 PHEVs registered across Europe between 2021 and 2023. Its key conclusion points to a "substantial and fast-growing gap between real-world and type-approval CO2 emissions for PHEVs registered in 2021–2023." This type-approval CO2 emissions gap is stark: average carbon dioxide emissions observed in real-world driving conditions were found to be 3.5 times higher than the values set by 2021 type-approval standards. The situation worsened for more recent models, with real-world emissions soaring to 4.6 times higher than the 2023 type-approval values.

This widening divergence stems from a flawed assumption within the type-approval norms, which posited that larger battery capacities would naturally lead to increased reliance on electric power. However, the real-world PHEV CO2 emissions data gathered by the ICCT did not corroborate this expectation. Instead, the study underscores that the actual usage patterns of these vehicles result in significantly higher emissions than accounted for in their official certifications.

The implications of this significant type-approval CO2 emissions gap extend beyond environmental concerns, directly impacting consumers and the integrity of incentive programs. The ICCT highlighted that this divergence "misleads consumers about expected energy costs" associated with plug-in hybrids, as their actual fuel consumption is higher than advertised. Furthermore, the inflated performance figures unduly qualify these vehicles for various incentive schemes designed to promote low-emission transportation, potentially misallocating public funds.

Crucially, the study also reveals how these discrepancies skew the determination of automaker emissions compliance within the EU. If official figures do not accurately reflect real-world PHEV CO2 emissions, it becomes challenging to assess whether manufacturers are meeting their regulatory obligations. The International Council on Clean Transportation, known for its role in uncovering the 2015 "Dieselgate" scandal related to diesel emissions, is now urging the European Union to act decisively.

The organization specifically called on the EU not to delay a planned 2027 update to its emissions calculation methodologies, emphasizing that this update is critical for reducing the current discrepancy with real-world emissions. Beyond this immediate revision, the ICCT also recommended that the European Union consistently utilize real-world data to inform and guide all future updates to its emissions standards, ensuring that regulatory frameworks are grounded in actual vehicle performance.

The release of the ICCT plug-in hybrid emissions study arrives at a pivotal moment for the EU auto decarbonization strategy. Certain automakers, particularly German carmakers, have been actively advocating for the continued inclusion of plug-in hybrids as a central component of the European Union's efforts to reduce automotive sector emissions. This push comes amidst broader shifts in EU policy regarding internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

Last December, the EU, influenced significantly by Germany's lobbying efforts, reversed its earlier plans to prohibit the registration of new ICE vehicles starting in 2035. Instead, the revised framework mandates that carmakers achieve a 90% reduction in carbon dioxide levels compared to 2021 benchmarks, with provisions for compensating the remaining 10%. However, reports indicate that Germany and its allies are now seeking further relaxation of these rules to create more flexibility for hybrid vehicles, a move that could be complicated by the ICCT's findings on real-world PHEV CO2 emissions. The study thus adds significant weight to the ongoing debate about the true environmental impact of PHEVs and their role in achieving ambitious climate targets.

Compliance officers in the automotive sector, particularly those operating in or exporting to the EU, should monitor the EU's response to the ICCT's recommendations for updating emissions calculations. This study signals increased scrutiny on real-world PHEV performance, potentially leading to stricter regulations, revised incentive schemes, or future litigation risks for automakers regarding emissions compliance and consumer claims.

Source: Original reporting via Agence France-Presse