Ethiopia Tigray: Renewed Fighting Brings Telecoms Disruption

• Heavy fighting has erupted across multiple fronts in Ethiopia, primarily involving federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
• A near-total telecommunications disruption in Tigray has sparked fears of a return to the severe blockade experienced during the 2020-22 civil war.
• The TPLF has launched offensives into Afar and Amhara, aiming to disrupt supply lines and potentially advance towards the capital, Addis Ababa.
• The United Nations has voiced concerns over drone use and civilian harm, while the U.S. Embassy expressed disappointment despite recently lifting some sanctions.
• Analysts warn the conflict shows no signs of de-escalation, with potential for regional involvement and severe humanitarian consequences.

Clionadh Raleigh, head of ACLED, observed that while the current situation might not yet constitute an 'all-out war,' there are no discernible 'brakes in the system' to prevent further escalation.

Ethiopia's northern Tigray region is once again grappling with widespread conflict, as heavy fighting erupted on multiple fronts between federal forces and rebel groups on Friday. This resurgence of hostilities has been accompanied by a near-total disruption of telecommunications services, immediately raising fears among residents of a return to the severe blockade that characterized the 2020-22 civil war.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has escalated its offensive this week, seizing local airports and launching attacks into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, reportedly with the backing of local armed groups. This aggressive posture has prompted Tigrayans to seek alternative SIM cards, anticipating a complete shutdown of phone and internet access. Memories of the previous conflict, which saw electricity, banking services, and nearly all humanitarian aid cut off, leading to an estimated 600,000 deaths, are fueling deep anxiety within the community.

Reports from the ground confirm intense clashes. A humanitarian source in Afar detailed "heavy fighting overnight," including drone strikes, near Abala, a mountainous town on the Afar-Tigray border. Federal forces successfully prevented rebels from entering Abala, but concerns are mounting over the potential displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians. Separately, conflict monitor ACLED documented "heavy fighting" in western Tigray, specifically near May Gaba and Tselimo, noting that while some TPLF fighters surrendered, they were swiftly replaced by reinforcements. Further south, in Amhara's North Wollo Zone, clashes were reported on Thursday, including in the vicinity of Lalibela, a UNESCO World Heritage site known for its rock-hewn churches. The Ethiopian army claimed to have killed over 700 TPLF fighters in Amhara, though it did not provide figures for its own casualties or civilian losses.

The TPLF has declared itself to be in a "full-blown war" with the federal government, signaling a significant escalation of the long-standing conflict. This renewed offensive appears to follow a strategic blueprint reminiscent of the previous war, with analysts suggesting the TPLF aims to push south through Amhara, potentially targeting the capital, Addis Ababa. Concurrently, the offensive in Afar is believed to be a calculated move to disrupt critical supply lines from Djibouti, which serves as the primary conduit for nearly all of Ethiopia's international cargo, including essential fuel imports.

In a bid to bolster its position, the TPLF has solidified an alliance with six other armed groups committed to overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration. An eighth group, the Sidama Liberation Front, based in southern Ethiopia, announced its allegiance to this coalition on Friday, despite having maintained a low profile in recent years. Despite these rebel advancements, the federal government maintains a considerable military advantage, possessing a substantial arsenal of drones, an army of approximately 500,000 troops, and receiving support from external powers, notably the United Arab Emirates. The United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, expressed profound concern on Friday regarding reports of drone usage and incidents causing harm to civilians, raising the deteriorating situation with global leaders convened in New York.

The renewed fighting unfolds shortly after the United States this month lifted sanctions previously imposed due to atrocities committed during the last civil war, citing the expiration of a "national emergency." However, the U.S. Embassy this week conveyed its "disappointment" regarding the TPLF's latest offensive, underscoring the international community's apprehension. Clionadh Raleigh, head of ACLED, observed that while the current situation might not yet constitute an "all-out war," there are no discernible "brakes in the system" to prevent further escalation. Raleigh further cautioned against expecting a return to a "quiet, low-intensity conflict," citing the multitude of vested interests now at play.

The conflict carries the potential to draw in neighboring Eritrea, which some analysts suggest might align with the rebels due to its fears that landlocked Ethiopia could be planning an invasion to secure direct access to the Red Sea. On the ground, the humanitarian situation is rapidly deteriorating. Prices for basic goods in Tigray have surged, prompting residents to stock up on supplies amidst a palpable sense of panic. Samuel Gebreslassie, a 37-year-old spice shop worker in Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, articulated the prevailing sentiment on Thursday, stating, "There is panic in the community," and expressing a "deep fear that banks, telecom networks, electricity and basic goods could be cut off."

Lawyers advising clients with operations or investments in Ethiopia, particularly in the Tigray, Afar, or Amhara regions, must assess immediate operational risks due to telecoms disruptions and potential blockades. They should also monitor for potential re-imposition of international sanctions or new human rights-related legal actions as the conflict escalates, despite the recent lifting of some US sanctions.

Source: Original reporting via Associated Press and Agence France-Presse