Ethiopia: Tigray Peace Deal Unravelling Amid Renewed Conflict

• The 2022 Pretoria peace deal between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has unravelled, leading to renewed fighting and air strikes in Tigray.
• The agreement failed to transition from a ceasefire to a comprehensive political settlement, with the TPLF deregistered and Tigray excluded from future elections.
• Both sides failed to fully meet their obligations: Tigrayan forces began disarming, but the federal government did not secure the withdrawal of non-federal forces as agreed.
• A new alliance of seven armed groups has formed, seeking to oust Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, intensifying the conflict.
• The US has threatened further Ethiopia sanctions risk Tigray, accusing the TPLF of launching an "unwinnable fight," while accountability for alleged war crimes remains unaddressed.

The failure to achieve these broader objectives has led to a concerning Ethiopia Tigray conflict escalation, with fighting resuming between government troops and Tigrayan forces, marked by recent air and drone strikes across the region.

The Pretoria peace deal, signed in 2022 between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), was initially hailed as a significant step towards ending hostilities. While it successfully halted large-scale fighting in the Tigray region and established a framework for immediate measures like disarmament, its deeper ambition was to pave the way for a comprehensive political settlement. This broader agreement was intended to address underlying disputes, aiming to restore Tigray's self-rule through an elected regional government and reinstate its representation in Ethiopia's federal legislative, executive, and judicial bodies.

However, this envisioned political settlement never materialized. Instead, the Tigray People's Liberation Front faced deregistration, and the region was subsequently excluded from the national elections scheduled for June 2026. Crucial provisions of the Pretoria Agreement 2022 breakdown also included the withdrawal of Eritrean and other non-federal forces from Tigrayan territories, alongside a commitment to accountability for alleged war crimes and other violations. The failure to achieve these broader objectives has led to a concerning Ethiopia Tigray conflict escalation, with fighting resuming between government troops and Tigrayan forces, marked by recent air and drone strikes across the region.

The Pretoria agreement outlined specific military and political obligations for both signatory parties. The Tigray People's Liberation Front was mandated to disarm, a process that commenced in January 2023 with Tigrayan forces surrendering heavy weapons, a fact witnessed and confirmed by an African Union monitoring team. In return, the federal government was tasked with removing the TPLF's terrorist designation (which occurred in March 2023), restoring essential services and humanitarian access to Tigray, and re-establishing federal authority in the region. Subsequent peace talks held in Nairobi further clarified these reciprocal obligations, linking the handover of Tigray's heavy weaponry directly to the withdrawal of foreign and non-federal forces.

Despite Tigrayan forces beginning their disarmament, the federal government notably failed to secure the corresponding withdrawal of non-federal forces. This lapse contributed significantly to the Pretoria Agreement 2022 breakdown. While the federal government did not fulfill its part, Tigrayan leadership also bears some responsibility for the current Ethiopia Tigray conflict escalation. Their decision to restore the pre-war regional administration contradicted the Pretoria agreement's provision for an interim administration established through dialogue, which was meant to govern until elections could be held under the supervision of the National Election Board. Furthermore, reports of forced military mobilization within Tigray are serious concerns, though these actions occurred within a peace process already significantly weakened by unfulfilled commitments from both sides.

The current Ethiopia Tigray conflict escalation has seen seven armed organizations, including groups that previously fought each other during the 2020-2022 Tigray war, form an alliance with the stated aim of removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. The international community's response has largely focused on the Tigray People's Liberation Front. In late September 2026, US ambassador Ervin Massinga publicly accused the TPLF of making a poor decision by launching a large-scale offensive, characterizing it as an "unwinnable fight." He further threatened the imposition of additional Ethiopia sanctions risk Tigray, targeting both the TPLF and the leaders of the newly formed armed alliance.

This renewed focus on who initiated the latest offensive, however, risks overshadowing the fundamental reasons behind the failure of the 2022 peace process to prevent a return to conflict. Experts suggest that preventing a broader war in Ethiopia necessitates more than merely reverting to the terms of the Pretoria agreement. A comprehensive political settlement is required, one that extends beyond a bilateral arrangement with Tigray and involves negotiations between Prime Minister Abiy's leadership and all anti-government forces. The ongoing situation also raises critical questions regarding war crimes accountability Ethiopia, as the initial peace deal's commitment to addressing these violations remains largely unfulfilled, adding another layer of complexity to the region's instability.

Lawyers and compliance officers should advise clients on the escalating political and security risks in Ethiopia, particularly Tigray, and monitor for new international sanctions or changes to existing ones. This situation also raises significant concerns regarding accountability for alleged war crimes and potential implications for international human rights law.

Source: Original reporting via The Conversation