Ethiopia: Accuses Sudan, Eritrea of Tigray Support

• Ethiopia has accused Sudan, Egypt, and Eritrea of providing support to Tigrayan forces fighting federal troops.
• Sudan has rejected these accusations as baseless, while Egypt and Eritrea have not publicly responded.
• Renewed heavy fighting between the TPLF and Ethiopian federal forces has led to an estimated 150,000 displacements in Afar.
• The 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which ended the previous civil war, was never fully implemented, leaving one million people displaced.
• These accusations highlight escalating regional tensions, with Sudan also making counter-accusations against Ethiopia regarding other conflicts.

The 2022 Pretoria agreement, which aimed to end the devastating civil war, successfully halted large-scale hostilities but was never fully implemented, leaving approximately one million individuals unable to return to their homes.

Addis Ababa has leveled serious charges against Sudan and Eritrea, alleging their support for armed groups battling federal forces in northern Ethiopia. Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, Ethiopia's army chief, specifically named Sudan, Egypt, and Eritrea on Sunday, claiming they are backing forces engaged in conflict with federal troops. These accusations coincide with a significant offensive by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which has extended its operations beyond its traditional northern stronghold. Khartoum swiftly rejected these claims as "baseless," asserting its adherence to international law and its commitment to fostering positive relations with neighboring states.

The resurgence of heavy fighting between TPLF and federal forces began last week, with Tigrayan combatants advancing into the adjacent Afar and Amhara regions. A humanitarian source confirmed that the town of Erebti in Afar fell to Tigrayan forces on Sunday following intense artillery bombardment, with fighters subsequently moving towards Afdeera, approximately 100 kilometers further east. This renewed conflict has led to an estimated 150,000 people being displaced within Afar, though precise figures remain challenging to ascertain due to significant communication disruptions.

Further exacerbating the situation, the headquarters of Tigrai TV in Mekelle, the regional capital, was reportedly struck by a drone on Sunday. Visual evidence showed damage to the building, and journalists reported the station ceased broadcasting. No immediate casualties were reported. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has voiced his concern regarding the renewed hostilities, particularly noting reports of drone usage and potential harm to civilians.

These grave accusations by Ethiopia against Sudan and Eritrea underscore a broader and worsening pattern of regional tensions in the Horn of Africa. Field Marshal Birhanu Jula reiterated that Ethiopia is confronting armed groups receiving foreign backing, specifically naming Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt as providers of support and supplies, though he did not publicly present any evidence to substantiate these assertions. Neither Egypt nor Eritrea has issued a public response to these particular claims.

The strained diplomatic landscape extends beyond Ethiopia's current allegations. Sudan has, on multiple occasions, accused Ethiopia of providing assistance to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has been engaged in conflict with the Sudanese army since April 2023. Khartoum has also alleged that drones used in attacks within Sudan originated from Ethiopian territory, with support from the United Arab Emirates. Both Ethiopia and the UAE have denied these specific counter-accusations.

Furthermore, Ethiopia itself accused Sudan in May of supporting TPLF-linked fighters, a claim that Khartoum also denied. Relations between Addis Ababa and Eritrea have similarly deteriorated sharply. Despite Eritrean troops having fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces against the TPLF during the 2020-2022 war, their relationship soured following the peace agreement signed in Pretoria, highlighting the complex and shifting alliances within the region.

The recent escalation of fighting and the Ethiopia accuses Sudan Eritrea Tigray support claims have reignited profound concerns about the humanitarian situation and the fragility of peace in the region. The 2022 Pretoria agreement, which aimed to end the devastating civil war, successfully halted large-scale hostilities but was never fully implemented, leaving approximately one million individuals unable to return to their homes.

This renewed conflict evokes grim memories of the 2020-2022 war, which, according to African Union estimates, resulted in an estimated 600,000 fatalities and was characterized by widespread abuses, including sexual violence. The current heavy disruption of communications within Tigray has fueled fears among residents of a return to the severe isolation experienced during the previous conflict, when essential services like electricity, banking, and much-needed humanitarian assistance were cut off. The failure to fully implement the peace accord four years after its signing has created a volatile environment, underscoring the persistent challenges to achieving lasting stability.

This escalating regional conflict and accusations of state-sponsored proxy warfare signal heightened geopolitical risk for businesses operating in or with Ethiopia, Sudan, and Eritrea. Compliance officers should monitor for potential new sanctions, trade disruptions, or increased due diligence requirements related to regional stability and international law.

Source: Original reporting via unnamed news source