Carl-Friedrich Schleussner: Glacier Immediate Risk, 1.5C Breach Certain

• Climate scientist Carl-Friedrich Schleussner warns of an immediate risk from accelerating glacier loss, which increases devastating events like the recent Himalaya floods.
• A new UNEP report confirms the 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming limit is certain to be breached, with severe consequences even if temperatures are later reduced.
• Over 40% of global glacier mass loss since the 1970s has occurred in the last decade, destabilizing glaciers and expanding adjacent glacial lakes.
• Regions like South America and the "third pole" are particularly vulnerable to these rapidly changing, high-altitude glacial environments.
• Humanity is currently unprepared for these escalating physical risks, requiring urgent adaptation and drastic emission reductions to slow warming.

Humanity is currently unprepared for these escalating physical risks, necessitating a significant escalation in adaptation strategies and an immediate, substantial reduction in emissions.

Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, a climate scientist at Austria's IIASA research institute and co-author of a significant U.N. scientific assessment, warns that humanity faces an immediate risk from glaciers. He emphasizes the critical need for a swift response to the escalating frequency of extreme weather events by curbing global warming. This urgent call follows a catastrophic glacial collapse on August 26, which unleashed a massive wave of freezing water, rocks, and debris along the China-Nepal border. The devastating Himalaya flood climate impact resulted in the recovery of over 1,100 bodies, underscoring the severe human cost of such phenomena. Schleussner highlights that climate change is rapidly accelerating the loss of glaciers worldwide, noting that more than 40% of all global glacier mass loss recorded since the 1970s has occurred in the last decade alone. This rapid melt destabilizes glaciers, significantly increasing the likelihood of similar destructive events.

A new report from the U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), published this past Wednesday, delivers stark findings regarding the trajectory of global warming. The UNEP glacier report findings conclude that the international goal of limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius is now certain to be breached. It further cautions that even if global temperatures are subsequently brought back down, the consequences of this overshoot will be severe. The mechanism behind these escalating risks involves melting glaciers leading to the formation and expansion of adjacent lakes. As glacial meltwater accumulates, these lakes can grow considerably in size, particularly in high-altitude regions. This process, coupled with the destabilization of the glaciers themselves or the surrounding mountain areas, creates a perilous environment. Additionally, permafrost melt can contribute to these sudden events, where large chunks of debris or ice fall into lakes, generating powerful flood waves with potentially devastating outcomes.

The threat of such consequential and potentially devastating events is not confined to the Himalayas but persists wherever glaciers are melting at an accelerated rate. Regions particularly susceptible include South America and the "third pole," encompassing the Himalayan-Karakoram-Pamir range, which are characterized by immense glaciers and rapid environmental changes. Despite the clear and present danger, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner acknowledges that the full extent of these risks is not yet understood to a level that allows for precise estimation. He stresses that humanity is currently unprepared for these escalating physical risks, necessitating a significant escalation in adaptation strategies. Furthermore, an immediate and substantial reduction in emissions is imperative to slow the pace of climate change and buy crucial time, especially as the planet continues to warm at an unprecedented rate.

This report highlights the accelerating physical risks of climate change, particularly from glacial melt, which requires legal and compliance teams to advise clients on enhanced climate risk assessments, due diligence for operations in vulnerable regions, and potential liabilities arising from inadequate adaptation or emission reduction efforts.

Source: Original reporting via AFP