Beyond China: India's LOHUM, Hong Kong Capital and Karo Platinum Widen Zimbabwe's Critical-Minerals Investor Base

• India's LOHUM: on 9 September dispatched its first tranche of lithium ore from 10 spodumene blocks (about 1,100 ha, 30–40 million tonnes of ore, about US$7 billion gross in-situ value), with preferred rights over up to 90 more blocks. It targets about 30,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate a year within two to three years, with initial processing in Zimbabwe and refining in India.

• Fact check: raw lithium ore exports have been banned since 2022. The shipment's volume, grade and destination were not disclosed, and it was most likely moved for processing within Zimbabwe, not exported.

• Hong Kong: ZIDA and InvestHK signed a non-binding MoU, publicised around 9 September, to refer Asian investors into sectors including mining and beneficiation. No investment commitments were announced.

• Karo Platinum: on 24 August signed a 25-year special mining lease over 23,903 ha on the Great Dyke. The state holds a 15% free carry with an option on a further 11%. Tharisa raised US$300 million for the project, targeting first ore in late 2027.

• Chinese incumbents: Bikita (Sinomine) says it will have invested more than US$900 million in beneficiation by the end of 2027.

• The legal frame: newcomers face the same beneficiation rules, quotas and state-participation expectations as incumbents. Karo shows that negotiated special mining leases are the route to fiscal certainty for large projects.

Scale. Chinese companies have invested about US$2 billion in Zimbabwe's lithium sector since 2021. They dominate the industry: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe, Arcadia), Sinomine (Bikita), Sichuan Yahua (Kamativi), Chengxin Lithium and Tsingshan. Until now, most Zimbabwean lithium concentrate has been shipped to China for refining.

Processing is Chinese-led too. The only operating lithium sulphate plant, at Arcadia, belongs to Huayou. Sinomine's Bikita says it will have invested more than US$900 million in direct beneficiation by the end of 2027, including about US$383 million by the end of 2026. That spending covers a lithium sulphate plant, tantalite extraction and an expansion of its spodumene flotation capacity from 2 to 3.3 million tonnes, due in the second quarter of 2027.

Why diversification matters. Concentration on one country's buyers and investors carries risks:

• Price risk: Zimbabwe's lithium earnings track Chinese demand and Chinese processing margins.

• Leverage: with few alternative buyers, Harare has less bargaining power over terms, processing commitments and transfer pricing.

• Geopolitics: Western and Indian battery supply chains are seeking non-Chinese sources, which creates both opportunity and scrutiny for Zimbabwean assets.

September 2026 brought the first real signs of a broader investor base: an Indian lithium entrant, a new channel to capital through Hong Kong, and a large platinum project led by JSE- and LSE-listed Tharisa with a long-term state lease.

The milestone. On 9 September 2026, Indian critical-minerals company LOHUM announced it had dispatched the first tranche of lithium ore from its mining assets in Matabeleland South Province. It called this the start of its lithium operations in Zimbabwe and said it made LOHUM the first Indian company to produce lithium from overseas assets. LOHUM was previously focused on battery recycling, refining and materials manufacturing in India.

The asset:

The business model. LOHUM plans to mine and carry out initial processing in Zimbabwe, then refine the material into lithium carbonate at a dedicated refinery in India, whose location has not been disclosed. It also says it intends to develop local processing capacity in Zimbabwe ahead of the January 2027 ban on concentrate exports. Founder and chief executive Rajat Verma said the assets let LOHUM take lithium "from the ground through refining to the cathode" and recover it at end-of-life, "within a chain India now has a stake in".

What the "dispatch" was, and was not. Reports, including from Reuters, described the shipment as "lithium ore". Zimbabwe has banned exports of raw lithium ore since December 2022, and LOHUM's own plan is to process in Zimbabwe first. The company has not disclosed the shipment's volume, grade or destination. The most plausible reading is that the first ore was moved from the mine to a processing point in Zimbabwe, not exported. Readers should not treat it as an export of raw ore unless LOHUM confirms otherwise.

What is not yet public. LOHUM has not published the size of its investment in Zimbabwe. It is also not yet clear whether LOHUM holds, or will seek, a lithium export quota under Zimbabwe's 2026 regime.

The agreement. The Zimbabwe Investment and Development Agency (ZIDA) and Invest Hong Kong (InvestHK), the investment promotion agency of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to deepen investment cooperation. It was publicised around 9 September 2026, in connection with the Belt and Road Summit in Hong Kong; one report dates the signing to 30 August.

What it covers:

The message. ZIDA Chief Legal Officer Theresa Muchinguri said the goal is to create stronger pathways between international investors and viable opportunities in Zimbabwe. InvestHK's Alpha Lau described Hong Kong as a gateway linking Africa with Asia through its financial markets, professional services and proximity to mainland China.

What it means in practice. The MoU does not bring new money by itself. Its value lies in giving Zimbabwean projects, especially in mineral beneficiation, access to Hong Kong's capital markets, banks and advisers. For lithium processors racing to meet the January 2027 deadline, and for platinum and other projects seeking development finance, an additional referral channel to Asian investors beyond mainland China is useful. Because Hong Kong is closely tied to mainland Chinese capital, it may broaden the range of financing sources more than it changes the nationality of the money.

The lease. On 24 August 2026, at State House in Harare and with President Emmerson Mnangagwa attending, Karo Platinum signed a Special Mining Lease Agreement with the Government of Zimbabwe. Karo Platinum is controlled by JSE- and LSE-listed Tharisa plc.

The government's pitch. Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube presented Karo as a model for attracting large-scale mining capital: long-term mining rights, targeted tax incentives and greater policy certainty, combined with a retained state stake in long-term returns.

Why a special mining lease matters. A special mining lease is a negotiated instrument for large, capital-intensive projects. It sets out an agreed fiscal and operational framework for the project, giving investors greater certainty than an ordinary mining title alone. Tharisa described it as providing the tenure and fiscal certainty needed to advance the project to production.

The free carry. A free-carried interest gives the state equity without requiring it to fund its share of development costs. Investors bear the full capital cost, while the state shares in dividends. At 15%, with an option to reach 26%, Karo shows the model Zimbabwe is applying to major new projects, and it aligns with the state participation the Mines and Minerals Bill would require for strategic minerals.

1. New entrants face the same beneficiation rules

LOHUM enters Zimbabwe just as the rules tighten. Raw lithium ore exports have been banned since 2022, concentrate exports will be banned from 1 January 2027, and exports in the meantime depend on producer-specific quotas and written commitments to processing timelines. A new entrant must either build processing capacity in Zimbabwe, which LOHUM says it intends to do, or rely on tolling at plants that are already full or not yet built. Its model of initial processing in Zimbabwe and refining in India will only work if the intermediate product it ships qualifies as beneficiated under Zimbabwe's rules from 2027.

2. Investment protection and bilateral frameworks

The strength of protection depends on the investor's home state. Zimbabwe's investment treaty network and bilateral relationships differ for China, India and other partners. Investors should confirm which treaty, if any, covers their structure, and whether investing through intermediate holding companies (including in Hong Kong) changes the protection available. Government-to-government agreements, such as the India–Zimbabwe cooperation now being watched for, can add political backing, but they do not replace legally enforceable protections.

3. Special mining leases as a stability tool

Karo's lease shows how Zimbabwe offers negotiated certainty to large projects: an agreed fiscal framework, long tenure and state equity. That stands in contrast to the policy-by-notice approach affecting smaller operators. The key legal question for investors is how far a special mining lease protects them against later changes, such as new export taxes, beneficiation rules or the strategic-minerals regime in the pending Mines and Minerals Bill. That depends on the lease's own terms, which are not public.

4. State free carry as standard practice

A 15% free carry with an option to reach 26% is consistent with the state-participation model in Zimbabwe's draft mining bill, which would allow the state to require equity in strategic-mineral projects. New entrants in lithium, PGMs and other minerals should expect to negotiate state participation, and to model its effect on returns.

5. Diversification and trade alignment

Indian investment in Zimbabwean lithium fits India's push for critical-mineral security under its National Critical Mineral Mission, and diversifies Zimbabwe's buyers away from a single market. It also means Zimbabwean lithium may increasingly flow into supply chains seeking non-Chinese sources, where traceability, responsible-sourcing and origin documentation will be scrutinised.

Indian investors and battery-materials companies

The opportunity: LOHUM shows that non-Chinese companies can secure lithium assets in Zimbabwe, with preferred rights over a much larger area. What to watch: whether LOHUM builds processing capacity in Zimbabwe in time, obtains an export quota, and whether the intermediate product it plans to ship to India satisfies Zimbabwe's beneficiation rules from 2027.

Chinese incumbents

New entrants increase competition for deposits, tolling capacity, skilled labour and government attention. Incumbents with operating or near-complete plants, such as Huayou and Sinomine, remain best placed to meet the 2027 deadline, but may face pressure to offer tolling capacity to newcomers.

Hong Kong and Asian investors

The ZIDA–InvestHK MoU provides a formal referral channel into Zimbabwean projects, especially in mineral beneficiation. It carries no commitments, so value will depend on concrete deals referred through it.

PGM investors and lenders

Karo's lease, bond financing and offtake show that large PGM projects can secure long-term tenure, agreed fiscal terms and finance in Zimbabwe, provided the state receives a free-carried stake. Lenders will focus on the enforceability of the lease's fiscal terms and the project's path to first ore in late 2027.

The Zimbabwean government

Diversifying beyond China strengthens Harare's bargaining position and broadens access to capital and markets. The challenge is applying rules consistently: offering negotiated certainty to large projects like Karo while the broader mining law remains stalled and smaller operators face policy by notice.

Communities and workers

New projects bring jobs, with Karo alone expected to create more than 1,000 permanent roles, but also land-use and environmental pressures, especially in lithium areas such as Matabeleland South. Community agreements and compensation standards will matter as new operators arrive.

Lawyers and advisers

The work includes structuring entry for non-Chinese investors, treaty and holding-company planning, negotiating special mining leases and state carried interests, compliance with beneficiation and quota rules, and offtake and financing documentation.

What did LOHUM do in Zimbabwe? On 9 September 2026, the Indian company dispatched its first tranche of lithium ore from 10 spodumene blocks in Matabeleland South, starting its first overseas mining operation. It plans initial processing in Zimbabwe and refining into lithium carbonate in India.

Did LOHUM export raw lithium ore? Not as far as the public record shows. Zimbabwe has banned raw ore exports since 2022, and LOHUM plans to process in Zimbabwe. The shipment's volume, grade and destination were not disclosed.

What is the ZIDA–InvestHK agreement? A non-binding memorandum of understanding between Zimbabwe's investment agency and Hong Kong's investment promotion agency, covering investor referrals, business missions and information exchange, including for mining and mineral beneficiation.

What are the terms of Karo Platinum's lease? A 25-year special mining lease over 23,903 hectares on the Great Dyke, signed on 24 August 2026, with agreed fiscal terms. The government holds a 15% free-carried interest and an option to acquire a further 11%.

How much have Chinese firms invested in Zimbabwe's lithium? About US$2 billion since 2021.