AU: Ethiopia Tigray Pretoria Agreement Compliance Falters Amid Renewed Fighting

• Tensions are escalating in northern Ethiopia between the federal government and the TPLF, challenging the 2022 Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement.
• Both sides accuse each other of military mobilization, with recent heavy fighting reported near the Sudan border, including artillery and drone strikes.
• Human rights organizations have documented ongoing abuses against civilians, including forced recruitment of children and a recent drone strike killing three people.
• The African Union's Peace and Security Council, of which Ethiopia is a member, has recently moved to strengthen its early warning and response mechanisms to bridge the gap between warning and action.
• The AU is urged to intensify engagement and ensure public reporting by its monitoring mechanism on compliance, remobilization, and abuses to prevent further conflict.

The current escalation presents a critical test for the African Union's ability to translate its stated commitments on conflict prevention into tangible action, particularly concerning the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement.

Tensions have been steadily mounting in northern Ethiopia for over a year between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the dominant political entity in the Tigray region. This growing friction primarily revolves around the contentious implementation of the November 2022 Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, which was brokered by the African Union. Both sides have exchanged accusations of renewed military mobilization, further exacerbating the fragile peace.

Key unresolved issues continue to undermine the agreement, including disputes over contested territories, the safe return of displaced populations, and the disarmament process. The situation escalated significantly in August, when heavy fighting erupted between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan forces near Ethiopia's border with Sudan. Reports from the region indicated the use of artillery and drone strikes during these clashes, signaling a dangerous turn in the conflict.

The African Union had previously voiced concerns about rising tensions in Tigray as early as March 2025, while Human Rights Watch has consistently highlighted the precarious safety of civilians. Specific instances of human rights abuses have been documented, including ongoing mistreatment of Tigrayans by authorities and security forces in Western Tigray in April. More recently, the TPLF has been accused of forcibly recruiting civilians, including children as young as 15, into its ranks. Furthermore, a drone strike in Southeastern Tigray resulted in the deaths of three individuals, including a two-year-old child, underscoring the severe human cost of the ongoing instability.

The political mechanisms designed to de-escalate these growing tensions are currently under considerable strain. Efforts to rekindle mediation dialogue have raised questions about whether the existing communication channels still command the full confidence of both the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF. This challenge comes at a time when the African Union is actively seeking to bolster its conflict prevention capacity across the continent.

In response to the broader need for more effective intervention, the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC), of which Ethiopia is a member, issued a call on August 12 to strengthen the Continental Early Warning System. The objective is to bridge the critical gap between identifying potential conflicts and initiating timely, decisive action. This initiative reflects a broader commitment to proactive conflict management within the AU framework.

Further solidifying this commitment, the PSC validated a new Trigger Model for Early Warning and Response on August 24. Days later, African leaders convened at an extraordinary summit in Luanda, where they collectively emphasized the importance of enhancing conflict prevention, mediation, and the swift implementation of early warning and early action strategies. The developments in northern Ethiopia now present a concrete opportunity to test these newly articulated commitments.

The current escalation presents a critical test for the African Union's ability to translate its stated commitments on conflict prevention into tangible action, particularly concerning the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. The ongoing disputes and renewed hostilities underscore the urgent need for the AU to intensify its engagement with both the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF to address the underlying issues that threaten the peace accord. Effective African Union Tigray conflict monitoring is paramount to preventing a return to widespread conflict.

It is imperative that the AU assesses the efficacy of its current mediation arrangements and, if necessary, strengthens them to regain the confidence of all parties. A crucial step towards ensuring AU Pretoria Agreement Ethiopia Tigray compliance involves calling for public reporting by its Monitoring, Verification and Compliance Mechanism. This mechanism should transparently report on adherence to the agreement, including investigating allegations of Ethiopia TPLF military mobilization and documented Tigray human rights abuses against civilians.

The devastating 2020-2022 conflict resulted in widespread abuses and immense civilian suffering. The African Union must act decisively and proactively to prevent these escalating tensions from spiraling out of control once again. Robust oversight and transparent reporting are essential to hold parties accountable and protect vulnerable populations from further harm.

Compliance officers should reassess human rights due diligence and supply chain risks for operations connected to Ethiopia's Tigray region, given the escalating conflict and the African Union's struggle to enforce the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement.

Source: Original reporting via Human Rights Watch