ANC South Africa: Records Lowest Election Results Ever, Faces Coalition Talks

• South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) recorded its worst-ever election performance in recent municipal polls, securing just over 31% of the vote.
• The pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) placed second with over 24%, while the uMkhonto weSizwe party (MKP) debuted strongly in third with over 9%.
• The ANC's decline from nearly 70% in 2004 is attributed to voter disillusionment over corruption, mismanagement, and high unemployment.
• The absence of outright majorities in many cities will trigger complex coalition negotiations to form new local governments.
• Analysts view these South Africa municipal election results as a significant indicator of shifting voter sentiment ahead of the 2029 general election.

The significant decline in the African National Congress's electoral performance, reaching its lowest point in history, necessitates complex coalition negotiations across numerous municipalities.

The African National Congress (ANC) has recorded its most challenging electoral outcome in its history during the recent South Africa municipal election, with near-final results indicating the party secured only about a third of the total vote. As of Friday, with 90% of ballots declared, the election authority dashboard showed the ANC holding just over 31% of the votes, marking its lowest performance ever in any election. These local government polls, held on Wednesday, were largely shaped by widespread public frustration over critical service delivery failures, particularly concerning water and power supplies across the nation.

The pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) emerged as the second-largest party, garnering just over 24% of the vote according to the 90% count. This represents an increase from its nearly 22% share in the 2021 local government elections. Meanwhile, the uMkhonto weSizwe party (MKP), a breakaway faction led by former President Jacob Zuma and contesting local government elections for the first time, secured a notable third place with just over 9% of the vote. Final results for the South Africa municipal election are anticipated by Sunday.

The significant decline in the African National Congress's electoral performance, reaching its lowest point in history, necessitates complex coalition negotiations across numerous municipalities. This outcome stands in stark contrast to the party's previous showings, having secured 46% in the 2021 municipal elections and just over 40% in the 2024 national polls. The ANC's support has steadily eroded from a high of nearly 70% in the 2004 national elections, a trend analysts attribute to growing voter disillusionment over persistent corruption, governmental mismanagement, and persistently high unemployment rates. Furthermore, the rise of splinter parties has fragmented the traditional ANC support base.

The Democratic Alliance's performance saw it poised to retain control of Cape Town, a key tourism hub, and it also held a lead in Johannesburg, the country's financial capital. The uMkhonto weSizwe party's strong debut was particularly evident in the eastern metropolitan municipality of eThekwini, which encompasses the port city of Durban and is situated in KwaZulu-Natal province, a region historically significant to former President Zuma. Analyst Sanet Solomon highlighted that the emergence of parties like the MKP is a primary factor contributing to the ANC's loss of votes, underscoring the increasingly fragmented nature of South Africa's political landscape, which now boasts 620 registered parties.

The absence of outright majorities in several key cities means that the election results will inevitably lead to intricate South Africa coalition government negotiations. Political analyst Daniel Silke characterized this as the "most severe result" the ANC could have feared, declaring it the party's "worst result in history." Silke further suggested that this outcome would diminish the ANC's capacity to exercise authority not only at the local level but also nationally, potentially emboldening opposition parties ahead of the 2029 general election. The results are widely seen as a crucial indicator of shifting voter sentiment, reflecting how frustrations with local government failures are altering political loyalties.

In response to the outcome, ANC First Deputy Secretary-General Nomvula Mokonyane stated that the party does not believe it will "disappear in the struggles of our people," viewing the results as an "opportunity to repackage and renew the ANC." Meanwhile, DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis emphasized the immediate need to form functional governments, noting that the party had already initiated outreach to various political entities. The necessity for alliances is paramount, as smaller parties have historically played a role in forming coalitions, a trend expected to continue as parties bargain to assemble the governments required to effectively manage towns and cities.

The significant decline of the ANC and the rise of opposition parties, necessitating coalition negotiations, signals potential shifts in South Africa's legislative and regulatory landscape. Lawyers and compliance officers should anticipate changes in policy direction, particularly concerning infrastructure, anti-corruption measures, and economic regulation, which could impact client operations and investment strategies. They should monitor the formation of new municipal governments and their policy agendas for compliance risks and opportunities.

Source: Original reporting via Agence France-Presse