ZW: Mthuli Ncube Unveils 2026 Mid-Term Budget Review Measures

• The 2026 Mid-Term Budget Review is expected to introduce measures to address Zimbabwe's economic and social challenges.
• Youth unemployment remains a pressing concern, with over two million young people estimated to be unemployed or underemployed.
• Food security concerns are mounting due to the possibility of another El Niño-induced drought.
• The Treasury's response to these challenges will have significant implications for businesses and their social responsibility obligations.

Expectations are high that the Mid-Term Budget Review will go beyond favourable statistics and introduce measures that directly improve livelihoods.

The 2026 Mid-Term Budget Review is a critical moment for Zimbabwe's economic and social development. With improved macroeconomic indicators, including projected growth of between 4.3% and 5%, the government has an opportunity to build on these gains and address pressing challenges. However, expectations are high that the review will introduce measures that directly improve livelihoods, particularly in areas such as youth unemployment and food security. The Treasury's response to these concerns will be closely watched by stakeholders, including lawyers and compliance officers who must navigate the implications of potential policy changes on businesses' hiring practices and social responsibility obligations.

The Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency estimates that more than two million young people remain unemployed or underemployed, a challenge exacerbated by the return of thousands of Zimbabweans from South Africa. This has put pressure on an already constrained labour market and reinforced calls for greater formalisation of the economy. The government's response to this issue will be crucial in addressing the root causes of youth unemployment and providing opportunities for young people to access education and employment. Analysts expect the Treasury to outline measures aimed at addressing this challenge, which could have far-reaching implications for businesses and their social responsibility obligations.

The possibility of another El Niño-induced drought has raised concerns about food security in Zimbabwe. Analysts say the government may need to increase support for agricultural production, improve grain import arrangements by easing licensing requirements, and ensure adequate funding for strategic grain reserves to minimise the risk of future food shortages. The Treasury's response to these concerns will be closely watched by stakeholders, including farmers, traders, and consumers who rely on a stable food supply. The government's ability to address these challenges will have significant implications for the country's economic growth and social development.

The 2026 Mid-Term Budget Review is expected to be presented by Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube, who has maintained the tax-free threshold at US$100 per month (US$1,200 annually) or ZWG2,800 per month (ZWG33,600 annually). This level has been criticized for not reflecting the cost of living, and stakeholders expect the Treasury to provide an update on funding for key social sectors, particularly health and education. The government's response to these concerns will be guided by its obligations under international law, including its commitments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Staff-Monitored Programme (SMP).

Lawyers and compliance officers should watch for potential measures to address youth unemployment, which may impact businesses' hiring practices and social responsibility obligations. They should also monitor the government's response to food security concerns, particularly regarding agricultural production support and grain import arrangements.

Source: Original reporting via New Zimbabwe